Welcome to spring training, one of the great inventions in history. You may think we’re kidding. But ask anyone who had to pick up a snow shovel in the last week if they think we’re kidding.
It may be tempting to say: What about the wheel? What about the microwave? What about the iPhone? What about TikTok?
Oh yeah, we say? What about palm trees swaying in the breeze as Shohei Ohtani whomps batting practice moonshots wearing Dodgers blue for the first time? Top that.
Spring training is that thing we wait all winter for. That thing we know we can turn to after all the Super Bowl ticker tape and Kelce brothers podcast tape has finished dropping out of the sky.
It is when we can finally begin learning the answers to the most pivotal questions in life: Does Corbin Burnes thrive on a diet steeped in crabcakes? … Will Juan Soto hit No. 4 in the Bronx or just ride the No. 4 train to the Bronx? … Will Mike Trout find health and happiness, or just free tickets to Disneyland, in post-Ohtani Anaheim? … Will Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger find a job before Saquon Barkley?
It will be a while until we know these things. But spring training is where the search for those answers begins.
So here, to help us break down the most riveting storylines of spring, is a smart, thoughtful panel of 31 baseball executives, former executives, coaches and scouts. They just took part in our annual spring preview survey — and as always, we learned a lot. So what do you say we pass those survey results on to you? You can thank us as soon as you finish shoveling those 6 inches of “wintry mix” off your sidewalk.
Good luck Dodging this team
Isn’t it reassuring, in these turbulent times, to know that all it takes is a mere $1.1 billion to turn your fun little baseball squad into the talk of two continents?
That’s roughly what the Dodgers guaranteed to their eight big-league free agents this winter, not counting deferred-money accounting measures. And while it may not guarantee them a parade, it 100 percent guaranteed them they’d win one thing they always dreamed of:
This survey.
We asked our panel to vote on the most improved teams in each league. Take a wild guess who ran away with the National League half of that vote?
MOST IMPROVED TEAMS (NL)
Dodgers — 31
Diamondbacks — 20
Cardinals — 12
Braves — 11
Reds — 11
What a stunner, huh? Every single voter put the Dodgers on their most-improved list. And just to make the point, a couple of voters tried to figure out if there was a place to rank them higher than first on that list.
One NL exec laid out his top three this way: “Los Angeles Dodgers … Oklahoma City Baseball Club (their Triple-A team) … Tulsa Drillers (their Double-A team).”
Another voter went with this top three: “Dodgers … Dodgers … Dodgers.”
OK then, we get your gist! Take a 100-win behemoth … add the first $700 million free agent in history (Ohtani) … welcome back Walker Buehler … trade for Tyler Glasnow (and throw another $136.5 million at him just for kicks) … move Mookie Betts to second base full-time … and sprinkle in the first $325 million Japanese import since, what, the Toyota Motor Corp.? And voila! That’s how you, too, can win the winter.
But can the Dodgers also win the April-to-October portion of these festivities? Our panel seemed slightly upbeat on that.
• “How many games will the Dodgers win? 130?”
• “They won 100 games (last season) AND they’re the most improved team? Wow. How do you do that? Easy. You do that with a billion dollars.”
• “Look, I work for (a lower-budget NL team), so in some ways, I can’t stomach the Dodgers. But you have to admire not just that they do what they do, but they’re awfully freaking good at it.”
SURVEY SAID: All you need to know about what a bizarre offseason this was is that those five teams above are the only five NL clubs that got more than two votes. … So yes, that means the Tulsa Drillers got as many votes as the defending NL Central champs, the Brewers. … The Diamondbacks may have been outspent in this free-agent market by the Dodgers by a tidy $980 million. But their biggest additions — Eduardo Rodriguez in the rotation, Eugenio Suárez at third, the re-signing of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and the Joc Pederson/Randal Grichuk outfield tag team — were viewed as just about perfect by our voters. … “I don’t think they have a chance to beat the Dodgers,” one exec said. “But they didn’t have a chance to beat the Dodgers last year, either. And they wound up in the World Series.”
Burnes baby Burnes
OK, here’s a hypothetical question. Suppose you don’t have a spare billion dollars stuffed in your pillowcase. Could there possibly be some other way, in some alternative non-spending universe, your team could also win the winter?
Yeah, we know. Pretty wacky question, right? Who doesn’t have an extra billion sitting around these days? However, you know what we learned from this survey? Shockingly, that is possible.
That’s because the team that tied for the most votes in the Most Improved American League Teams election was the Orioles — a franchise that spent fewer total dollars in free agency this winter ($13 million) than the Reds spent on just one pitcher who faced seven big-league hitters last year (Frankie Montas, $16 million). What a country.
Here are the results in this category. It turned into the tightest race ever.
MOST IMPROVED TEAMS (AL)
Orioles — 24
Yankees — 24
Royals — 20
Tigers — 10
Mariners — 6
Astros — 4
The most amazing part is that all the love the Orioles got was obviously based on their acquisition of one guy: Corbin Burnes. Well, it was actually that one guy plus this sport’s most dazzling collection of young super-duper-stars, or at least super-duper-stars in the making.
But mostly, it was because that one guy, obtained in a whoa-how-bout-that trade with Milwaukee, was essentially the definition of The Missing Piece for a team that otherwise seemed to have it all before he showed up. That’s how our panel viewed it, anyway.
• “If they could get one guy in the game who fit their biggest need, he was that guy.”
• “Even Santa Claus has got a lead reindeer. So now they’ve got that lead reindeer.”
Ho, ho, ho. Oh, wait. We should mention that the Orioles did lose their hulking closer, Félix Bautista, for the year because of Tommy John surgery — and replaced him with the less reliable, 35-year-old version of Craig Kimbrel, who got all $13 million of their free-agent dollars. There was some definite concern from our panel about that.
We should mention, too, that many of these votes were submitted before the injuries, announced on the first day of camp, to key rotation pieces Kyle Bradish and John Means. And that had at least one voter wondering if he should change his vote. But as long as Corbin Burnes’ pitches still burn and his heart stays cool, he’s a team-changer. Period.
• “Yeah, it’s just one move. It’s a huge move, though,” one rival AL exec said.
SURVEY SAID: Apparently, only six teams in the entire AL were actively participating in hot-stove shopping — because those six teams were three votes shy of collecting every one of the 95 total votes cast. … The biggest source of fascination among these voters, beyond the usual suspects, was the Royals. They lost 106 games last season, but then guaranteed $109.5 million to seven free agents: Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Chris Stratton, Garrett Hampson and Will (Have Ring, Will Travel) Smith. And that doesn’t even include the $288.7 million extension they dropped on Bobby Witt Jr. So their votes were basically a round of applause for the sight of a team that was at least trying: “Who knew they would spend like this,” one voter said. “But they’re still going to lose 90.” … You know who got zero votes? The team that won the World Series (the Rangers).
Remember that superpower named the Red Sox?
There’s a section of this survey where we ask our voters to rank the best free agents of the winter. Now that the votes are in, you know what might have been the biggest upset? That Theo Epstein didn’t beat out Shohei Ohtani for biggest free-agent addition of the winter.
OK, so in reality, Theo didn’t get one vote for his much-ballyhooed return to the Fenway Sports Group. But the sad state of the Red Sox? That earned way too many votes from this panel in a category nobody wants to win — the least improved team of the offseason.
In fact, the Red Sox didn’t quite win it. But you know how hard it ought to be for any team to even come close to the A’s in this competition? The Red Sox gave them quite a run.
LEAST IMPROVED TEAMS (AL)
A’s — 17
Red Sox — 14
White Sox — 14
Angels — 13
Guardians — 10
Rays — 8
Blue Jays — 5
Twins — 4
If you’re a Red Sox fan, you can shield your eyes or skip ahead to the next category. But for everyone else, let’s recap this team’s winter, which began with team chairman Tom Werner announcing they’d be going “full throttle” to be competitive again.
Heading in the door: Craig Breslow (new chief baseball officer), Lucas Giolito (free agent who went 2-10, 7.13 ERA down the stretch), Liam Hendriks (free agent recovering from Tommy John surgery), Tyler O’Neill (trade with Cardinals), Vaughn Grissom (trade with Braves) and a Netflix camera crew (for a future doc we can’t wait to watch).
Heading out the door: Chaim Bloom (fired as chief baseball officer in September), Alex Verdugo (traded to the hated Yankees), Chris Sale (traded to Atlanta for Grissom), James Paxton (free-agent escapee), Adam Duvall (free-agent escapee).
Not pictured: Shohei Ohtani, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes or any other offseason addition that would have given the fan base reason to stop asking: Which team is more depressing around here — the Red Sox or the Patriots?
So let’s just say that, like New Englanders, our voters were less than ecstatic about this retooled regime’s work.
• “Full throttle? Or in reverse?”
• “They’re just moving chairs around the deck of the Titanic.”
In other news, check out how the hotly contested NL vote turned out:
LEAST IMPROVED TEAMS (NL)
Marlins — 22
Rockies — 20
Padres — 19
Brewers — 9
Nationals — 7
Mets — 5
Giants — 4
SURVEY SAID: Here’s another commentary on this not-so-memorable offseason: 21 of the 30 teams got votes in the Least Improved competition. Is that good? … Also: Seven of the 12 playoff teams got Least Improved votes. That seems like a lot. … And 10 teams got votes for both most and least improved, which is crazy. … Is it our imagination, or do the Rockies dominate this Least Improved voting every year? “Are they even trying?” one voter asked. … This year’s group of free agents who wouldn’t take the Giants’ money was topped by Ohtani and Yamamoto, despite gargantuan offers. Our panel noticed. “It just feels like they’ve become the annual, ‘We were in on him, too,’ team.” … OK, quick quiz: Name the only free agent signed by the Guardians to a major-league deal? It was — who else? — a catcher who had an OPS+ of 27 last year, Austin Hedges! “The best thing Cleveland did this offseason,” quipped one NL exec, “was win the draft lottery.”
Who will change the AL East most — Burnes or Soto?
So what was the biggest trade of this winter? We ask that question in this survey every year. As always, our voters showered us with deals that caught their eye.
Jorge Polanco to Seattle … Tyler Glasnow to La La Ohtani Land … Chris Sale to Atlanta … even Aaron Bummer to Atlanta.
But none of those were That Deal. The Best Trade of the Offseason competition came down to two whoppers that sent two of baseball’s biggest stars whooshing toward the AL East: Juan Soto to the Yankees … Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. The votes are in. They looked like this:
THE BEST TRADES OF THE OFFSEASON
Corbin Burnes to the Orioles — 16
Juan Soto to the Yankees — 7
Chris Sale to the Braves — 4
Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox (for Chris Sale) — 2
Jorge Polanco to the Mariners — 2
Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox — 2
We’ve already heard the rave reviews on the Burnes trade. So no need to revisit those. But the reviews on Soto to New York were exactly what you’d expect.
• “Pencil them in for six more wins right there.”
• “I bet that guy has a monster season. He’s a perfect fit, for that lineup and that park.”
• “Pairing Soto with Judge is huge for that lineup.”
• “(The Padres) did well … but the Yankees seemingly became instant World Series contenders.”
Soto heads for the Bronx with a career OPS+ of 157. Here’s the complete list of hitters in the modern era who had an OPS+ that far above league average by age 25 and still got traded: Juan Soto and … Babe Ruth!
SURVEY SAID: Quite a few of these deals had votes flying in all directions. … Who “won” the Glasnow trade, for instance? It was hard to tell from this survey. The Rays got two votes for their end (Ryan Pepiot and Johnny DeLuca), the Dodgers got one vote for their end (Glasnow, Manuel Margot and $4 million), and Glasnow got one vote just for his personal end — for getting $136.5 million out of this. … That was also true for the Polanco deal. The Twins’ return (pitchers Anthony Desclafani and Justin Topa, plus prospects and $8 million) got one vote. Seattle’s half got two votes. And there was a vote for both sides. But one panelist did try to sell this as the most underrated trade of the winter, because of Polanco’s potential impact on the Mariners: “Legit middle-of-the-lineup hitter and adds lineup balance.” … The most underrated deal to get a vote? Had to be last month’s Cubs-Dodgers swap of young players. The Cubs get to plug Michael Busch and Yency Almonte into their big-league roster. But the vote was for the Dodgers’ haul of prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope — and not even because the Dodgers now have both a Ferris and a Buehler!
Half an Ohtani still beats a full loaf of anyone else
We’ve been doing this survey for over a decade. Never, ever has anyone towered over it quite like Shohei Ohtani. He obliterated the field in two different categories. Here they come.
BEST FREE-AGENT SIGNING
Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) — 25
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) — 17
Sonny Gray (Cardinals) — 7
Aaron Nola (Phillies) — 6
Josh Hader (Astros) — 6
MOST IRREPLACEABLE FREE AGENT
Shohei Ohtani — 24
Blake Snell — 2
You should know that in the best-free-agent category, voters could vote for their three favorite signings. So don’t let Yamamoto’s big vote total distract you. Ohtani just won by a landslide in two elections. And we’re pretty sure that not even Abraham Lincoln ever pulled that off. One long-time exec summed it up eloquently.
“The only thing that’s ever come close to this,” he said, “was the craziness around the home run (record) chase and Barry Bonds and the seasons he was having. I don’t ever remember a free agent like this.
“We always say, ‘the biggest free agent ever,’ and then the next year, there’s another new one. But this was a different type of frenzy just because of the two-way nature of it. And the irony is, it was a one-way signing (because Ohtani can’t pitch this year).”
Aha. Glad he brought that up! That’s because there was one voter (out of 31) who put Ohtani on his Worst Signing list. Why? How? Because of the pitching half of this two-way equation. Ohtani did, after all, have a second elbow surgery — and has oozed athleticism in how hard he has worked to evade any explanation of what that surgery actually was and what it means. So there was something about that portion of this deal that rubbed this panelist the wrong way.
• “They committed $700 million for a ton of uncertainty on how much Ohtani will pitch over the length of the contract.”
He then used the word “absurd” to describe the logic in that — even if we allow for all the international revenue Ohtani will generate and all the advantages that the $680 million in deferrals will provide the Dodgers over the next decade.
So is it possible that he’s right — and all those other voters are wrong? Get back to us in 2033 on that!
SURVEY SAID: It will come as a relief to the rest of North America that 17 non-Dodgers free agents did get votes for best signing. … What does it tell us about the Braves’ creative winter that they got all those votes for most improved team, but had no free agents get a vote in this category? … Most votes after you get past that top tier: Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks), Marcus Stroman (Yankees) and Shota Imanaga (Cubs) all got three apiece. And the group at two votes apiece included Rhys Hoskins (Brewers) and Mitch Garver (Mariners). … And what were the odds we’d get a vote for a 53-year-old guy who hasn’t played a game in 13 years? That would be new Cubs manager Craig Counsell. “That’s the shrewdest move of the offseason,” said the NL exec who cast that vote. “I think he’s the difference in five games a year.”
Is there really such a thing as a $700 million bargain?
There were times, as we ground through this survey, when it felt as though the answer to pretty much every question was (who else?) “Ohtani.” But we didn’t expect him to show up in one of our favorite annual categories:
BEST FREE-AGENT BARGAIN OF THE WINTER
Rhys Hoskins (Brewers) — 4
Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) — 3
Héctor Neris (Cubs) — 3
Justin Turner (Blue Jays) — 3
Yes, there it is in black and white. A guy who signed a $700 million contract missed winning the Bargain of the Year election by one vote. Perhaps you find this confusing. But think about it.
• Thanks to all that deferred money (all but $20 million over the next 10 years), the Dodgers will pay Brusdar Graterol a higher salary this year ($2.75 million) than Ohtani ($2 million). So there’s that. But also …
• Has anyone mentioned in the last 15 minutes that Ohtani is easily the greatest money machine — in both yen and dollars — that baseball has ever seen? And the Dodgers have yen-generating plans that the Angels never even hallucinated about — all while playing with that $680 million he deferred for their investing convenience.
So … is it making more sense now? Here’s how one longtime exec sized this up:
• “Dodgers ownership: brilliant. (They) will make a billion on the $680 million deferred.”
And if they make a billion dollars while only owing this guy another $680 million, would that make this deal a “bargain?” It’s hard to make our mouths say that word, but it’s also hard to argue with that logic!
SURVEY SAID: Apparently, this offseason was made for this best bargain debate because 35 different players got a vote. … The winner in this category (Hoskins) was a guy who played zero games last year, thanks to a gruesome spring training ACL tear. But the Brewers were so confident in his power, plate process and health, they reeled him in for two years, $34 million. One voter’s review: “Two years, $34 million is pretty good for a 30-homer guy with a good OBP. (And) I am not worried about his knee.” … Another fun vote went to one-year, $5 million Nationals lottery ticket Joey Gallo. “He’s like that gift you get from your uncle at Christmas,” one exec said. “You’re not sure what it is, but it’s got a chance to be fun.” … And our favorite vote of all came from an NL exec who looked over the list of 90-plus free agents who are still unsigned and said: “Good chance the winner of this (biggest bargain vote) hasn’t signed yet.”
Has anyone out there seen the A’s?
Next year at this time, they’ll be a team of nomads, playing baseball in Sacramento, Salt Lake City or the parking lot of the Bellagio. But this year, as spring training arrives, the Oakland A’s have an even more entertaining claim to fame:
They’re the winners (yeah, again) of our annual voting for …
LEAST RECOGNIZABLE TEAM
A’s — 17
Rockies — 10
White Sox — 7
Nationals — 7
We’ll admit it. We love this category, if only because it gives us a chance to play America’s favorite game: Name Six A’s.
We played that one with everyone we could rope into it as we were conducting this survey. The results were as amusing as you’d figure.
• “Nope. I’m not playing. I know I work in baseball, but I can’t help you on that.”
• “I can’t do it. They’re so unrecognizable, even the mayor of Las Vegas doesn’t want them.”
But finally, we ran into one voter who couldn’t wait to play Name Six A’s.
• “I can do that: Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, Dave Stewart, Miguel Tejada and Sal Bando.”
SURVEY SAID: It’s hard to remember a team from New York getting multiple votes in this category in any previous survey. But the Mets got three of them this year. “They went from (Justin) Verlander and (Max) Scherzer and future Hall of Famers to what?” asked one voter. … Then there are the Rockies, who are becoming the A’s of the Mountain Time Zone. “If I ran into them at a hotel,” said one scout, “I’d be clueless as to who they are.”
In other voting news …
THE FOUR WORST FREE-AGENT SIGNINGS
Lucas Giolito (Red Sox) — 8
Jordan Hicks (Giants) — 7
Jung Hoo Lee (Giants) — 7
Frankie Montas (Reds) — 4
SURVEY SAID: Would you believe that 30 players got votes in this category? Remember, it’s as much about the contract terms as it is about the player, but still. … It’s the contract (12 years, $325 million) that also dragged Yamamoto into this worst-signing end of the pool, no matter how young and uber-talented he is. He got two votes, one from a voter who found it shocking that the Dodgers guaranteed Yamamoto more money than they’ve paid Clayton Kershaw in his career ($294.7 million). … A sum-it-all-up appraisal of Giolito’s deal (two years, $38.5 million): “No reason why he should have gotten two years.” … And how about a vote for a player who hasn’t even signed yet? It went like this: “Whoever signs Blake Snell!”
WHO WILL BE THE LAST FREE AGENT STANDING?
Blake Snell — 20
Cody Bellinger — 6
Matt Chapman — 2
Jordan Montgomery — 2
SURVEY SAID: We asked our voters to predict which “big” free agent will be the last to sign. It’s safe to say they have faith in agent Scott Boras’ persistence, because all four of these guys are his clients. … We used to ask voters to predict the free agent most likely to sign at halftime of the Super Bowl. But this group blew through that “deadline” and halftime of the NBA All-Star Game. So now what? Here was one exec’s prediction on Snell’s signing date: “Isn’t it a leap year? Then I’ll go with Feb. 29.”
THE SIX MOST IMPORTANT INJURY COMEBACKS OF THE SPRING
Shohei Ohtani — 6
Edwin Díaz — 4
Chris Sale — 4
Walker Buehler — 4
Max Scherzer — 4
Jacob deGrom — 4
SURVEY SAID: That Scherzer/deGrom vote total is misleading because we also got additional votes for numerous combinations of injured Rangers — including the four-pack of Scherzer, deGrom, Corey Seager and Tyler Mahle, only one of whom (Seager) has any shot to be ready by Opening Day. … Right behind the group above were Mike Trout, Carlos Rodón and Byron Buxton, with three votes apiece. … And one thing this category always reminds us: Those medical staffs are underpaid! We got votes for 24 players again this year.
SIX PHENOMS TO WATCH THIS SPRING
Jackson Holliday (Orioles) — 22
Jackson Chourio (Brewers) — 16
Wyatt Langford (Rangers) — 6
Paul Skenes (Pirates) — 5
Colt Keith (Tigers) — 5
Junior Caminero (Rays) — 4
SURVEY SAID: Our voters gushed about Chourio and heaped praise on all of these names. But it sure sounded like the Orioles’ camp will be a popular hangout for scouts this spring. … One voter just cast his vote for “the Orioles’ whole team.” … But almost everyone started their ballot with Holliday, the 2022 No. 1 overall pick and the 2023 consensus minor-league player of the year. “The best all-around baseball prospect I’ve seen in a really long time,” one scout said.
FIVE STORYLINES TO FOLLOW THIS SPRING
Dodgers star power/ Ohtani/ Yamamoto — 27
Mr. Soto visits New York / Yankees “pressure cooker” — 14
Is it the Orioles’ time/ Will Holliday make their team — 11
Where/when will those Boras free agents sign — 5
The aforementioned Red Sox mess — 4
SURVEY SAID: That Dodgers camp may be a euphoric spot now, but this just in: It’s February. They have to play real games in South Korea only four weeks from now. They have injuries to manage. And they have big stars everywhere and bigger expectations. So “I’m sure it will all go smoothly,” quipped one exec, “because that’s how baseball works.” … We’ve touched on all these other plotlines elsewhere — except for one: The Boras free-agent factor. It’s Feb. 21, and he still has the five biggest unsigned free agents out there. So it’s fascinating how many execs are wondering how this saga shakes out. … “Is this the year his undefeated streak ends?” asked one. … But another said he has seen this movie many times — and predicted: “Boras will wait for something (cataclysmic) to happen and make someone panic.”
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
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