All the chatter of late is about the US avoiding a recession altogether. On the surface that seems like a positive outcome. But when you consider the implications of a ‘no landing’ scenario, it becomes less appealing because of the risk that a decent recovery turns into an overheated economy and market. It’s a recipe for a hard landing for both the economy and asset prices.
Have you heard that the US will avoid a recession in 2023? Well, a lot of people are talking about that possibility, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said last month that the Fed’s own economists have recanted on their view that the US will fall into a recession in 2023.