HOUSTON — Jim Crane approached the crossroads and went to a place he never had. His tendencies for fiscal restraint and avoiding free agency are gone in favor of another World Series pursuit with a core that may not be intact much longer. A team that finished one win away from the American League pennant required one more piece.
Crane paid more than he ever had to procure it. Houston’s five-year, $95 million agreement with free-agent closer Josh Hader shattered every part of Crane’s previous standard operating procedures, but projected the win-now mentality he’s maintained throughout the team’s golden era.
Rarely during that decade of dominance have the Astros shopped atop the free-agent market, a byproduct of baseball’s best farm system waiting to backfill a core kept together by a slew of contract extensions. Self-sufficiency carried the club to seven consecutive American League Championship Series appearances, four pennants and two World Series championships — sustained success this city had never enjoyed.
Prolonging it is Crane’s foremost objective, but the crossroads his franchise confronts is unmistakable. What once was baseball’s best farm system is now one of its worst. That aforementioned core is either aging or approaching free agency, demanding the sort of action Crane had long avoided.
Crane had never given anything more than a four-year deal to any free agent, nor had he guaranteed more than $58.5 million in any free-agent contract. Signing Hader almost guarantees the team will pay the competitive balance tax for the first time during Crane’s ownership tenure (the team exceeded it in 2020, but the tax was eliminated as part of the pandemic-shortened season).
Adding Hader gives the Astros baseball’s best bullpen and may reassert the club as the American League favorite, crucial in a season that could be the last in Houston for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.
Both are entering their final seasons under club control. Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez will hit free agency after next season. Justin Verlander and Ryan Pressly both contain performance-based options for the 2025 season, leaving at least a possibility that one or both could be gone after 2024, too.
That looming attrition always magnified the 2024 season. Friday, Crane reacted accordingly, even if the contract raised eyebrows.
By nature, relievers are unpredictable. Spending $95 million and committing five years to one is a substantial risk, even though Hader’s career excellence mitigates it. Houston has living proof in Rafael Montero, whose three-year, $34.5 million contract — given by Crane last winter — aged poorly last season and, in some respects, forced the team to boldly address the bullpen this winter.
Doing so with Hader affords the 2024 team its best chance to chase a championship, which should have been Crane and general manager Dana Brown’s entire focus. Changes after this season are almost certain. Tucker, Valdez and Bregman will all ask for the sort of massive contracts Crane has been reluctant to give.
In March, Crane said, “Our goal here is pretty simple: We try to assemble 26 guys. You can’t do it with one big contract.
“I’m not saying it’s something we would never do,” he continued. “But we’ve done well by constructing the team the way we have.”
Friday offered the most blatant departure from doing it “the way we have.” Only time will tell whether Hader’s contract is the start of a philosophical shift or an overreaction to Houston’s barren bullpen. The team lost Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Hector Neris to free agency and, on Tuesday, announced Kendall Graveman will miss the 2024 season after undergoing right shoulder surgery.
Whether the Astros would have even pursued Hader before Graveman’s operation is a legitimate question. At the Winter Meetings last month, general manager Dana Brown said — without prompt — that “I’m not interested in overpaying in the reliever market.” Tuesday, after the team announced Graveman’s prognosis, Brown spoke to The Athletic about finding someone to throw the sixth and seventh innings.
No, Hader isn’t making $95 million to throw the sixth or seventh inning. Something shifted within those three days, though that’s become common during Brown’s brief tenure. Leading up to last season’s trade deadline, Brown spent weeks reiterating the Astros were not surveying the starting pitching market, even as injuries and ineffectiveness ravaged their staff.
A day before the deadline, Brown changed his tone and the team reacquired Verlander from the New York Mets. Afterward, Verlander credited Crane for helping to finish the deal — understandable given their close relationship and the complex financial details the trade contained.
Crane’s involvement in the team’s baseball operations decisions is well-known and has only grown in the aftermath of the electronic sign-stealing scandal. Orchestrating the deal for Verlander fell in line with precedent, though. The team’s first trade for Verlander in 2017 and the Zack Greinke blockbuster in 2019 both required Crane to give the final push before completion.
Going to the top of the free-agent market and shelling out the sort of deal that steals headlines is not what Crane has done. Perhaps he realized his club can no longer afford to shed prospects from a farm system that can’t afford it. Acquiring Verlander from the Mets last season cost two of Houston’s top prospects: Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford, both of whom were ranked in Baseball America’s recently released top-100 list. The Astros had just one prospect listed, outfielder Jacob Melton.
Crane hired Brown, in part, for his scouting prowess and ability to replenish the team’s farm system through the draft. This winter, Crane allowed Brown to augment and restructure the amateur scouting staff with the intention of restocking the prospect pipeline.
Relying solely on trade deadline deals can undercut that objective, especially in a system with only a few top-end prospects. Brown and his burgeoning scouting staff can’t rebuild the farm in one draft. Giving them time to do so is imperative.
Perhaps, in the interim, Crane will continue this shift. If he does, Friday must be viewed as the start of it.
(Top photo of Jim Crane: Samuel Corum / Sipa USA via Associated Press)
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