Cover 7 | Saturday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Saturday, Jake Ciely updates his weekly player rankings to help you be best prepared for your fantasy football playoff matchup(s).
The fantasy football playoffs are here. Time to check out the Week 15 fantasy football rankings, sleepers and game previews to set your best lineup. Plus, we hit part two of Fun with Ranks this week, as the best TV show intros continue… with the animated list!
#CheckTheLink-age
Week 15 Waivers | Week 15 SOS Ranks
Fantasy Football 101 (weather, lineups, trading, more)
All in Football Podcast
WEEK 15 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS
NOTE: ALL of the stats are SINCE WEEK 9 — unless noted. We want to look at recent performance versus year-long with defenses, etc., as in-season adjustments can change things.
Acronyms to Know
- RBTouch% — RB touch percentage — percent of team total RB touches that player had
- TmTGT% — Team target percentage — percent of team total targets going to that player
- TGT% — Percentage of the time a player is targeted when running routes
- TmAirYD% — Team Air Yard percentage — percent of team total air yards going to that player
- YPRR — Yards per Route Run — rather valuable indicator
- APA — Adjust Points Allowed (tables link above)
Chargers at Raiders, TNF
- Even without Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer is just a boom/bust WR4 play given the added risk of Easton Stick at quarterback.
- If Josh Jacobs plays, he’s a risky RB2 for me, while Zamir White would be a volume-reliant RB2/3 without him.
- The Chargers are the only team to have just one game hit the over since Week 3, and that was before losing Justin Herbert.
Vikings at Bengals, Saturday, 1 p.m.
- If there is no Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler is a nice RB2, while Mattison would be a bit riskier than usual and more of an RB2/3.
- Since Week 4, the Vikings have just three double-digit WR scores allowed, no more than 15.4 points and only one 100+ receiving yards game.
- Zack Moss had a touchdown called back — the second week in a row — ending the streak of four straight opposing running backs scoring at least 13.9+ against the Bengals.
Steelers at Colts, Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
- If Jonathan Taylor plays, there is a risk that the Colts share the workload similar to his early-season return, and that’s why he’s an RB2. If Taylor is out, the “all the work” apologies for Zack Moss are done, and he’s an RB2.
- Zack Moss has 88.0 RBTouch% in games without Jonathan Taylor — Josh Jacobs would rank second with 85.2% for the season.
- Since Matt Canada’s firing, Jaylen Warren has 51.6, 35.7 and 42.3 RBTouch% with 5.7-6.0 points in each game… in other words, no major difference in use.
Broncos at Lions, Saturday, 8:15 p.m.
- There are two qualifying quarterbacks with more than double their TD/ATT% when actually UNDER pressure versus not pressured: Matthew Stafford 4.7% without pressure (versus 10.6% with), and Russell Wilson goes from 3.1% without to 10.8% with pressure!
- The Broncos defense has vastly improved since Week 5, but they have still given up five double-digit RB scores over the last four games with James Cook, Latavius Murray, Ty Chandler, Alexander Mattison, Jerome Ford, Dameon Pierce and Austin Ekeler all scoring 7.9 or more in those games.
- In the first six weeks, Jared Goff had three games of 22+ points. He has just one since Week 7 (21.1) and just one other over 16.3 points (18.2). The Broncos haven’t let a quarterback top 17.3 points since Week 4.
Bears at Browns, 1 p.m.
- The Lions are the only team (twice) since Week 3 to rush for over 97 yards against the Bears with five teams held to 54 or fewer rushing yards.
- Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and David Njoku account for 69.9% of Joe Flacco’s targets in his two starts, and they each have 108+ receiving yards combined over those two games.
- D’Onta Foreman had 72.2 RBTouch% last week with all three running backs active, which was actually his second-highest mark this year.
Buccaneers at Packers, 1 p.m.
- Chris Godwin is the only wideout with just one touchdown and 51+ receptions or 541+ receiving yards.
- When Christian Watson is out, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed are tied with 20.9 TmTGT% with Dontayvion Wicks third at 14.4%. Reed has 62.9 points and Doubs 53.5.
- Drake London was the 10th wideout to have 100+ receiving yards against the Buccaneers this year — the Seahawks are second with eight allowed.
Texans at Titans, 1 p.m.
- Obviously, no C.J. Stroud downgrades everyone, but if Stroud is active and Nico Collins is out as expected, Noah Brown is a boom/bust WR3 with Xavier Hutchinson in play as a decent flier (see waivers column).
- Derrick Henry has just three games with 81+ rushing yards and two games of double-digit points without a touchdown (Week 1 and 8). The Texans have kept the last four backfields (ARI, JAX, DEN, NYJ) from scoring a rushing touchdown.
- For the year, only Garrett Wilson (48.3), Davante Adams (46.3), A.J. Brown (45.7) and DJ Moore (44.1) have a higher TmAirYD% than DeAndre Hopkins’ 43.0.
Jets at Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Dalvin Cook has 10 and 8 touches in the last two games, his most since Week 3 (11), but Breece Hall had 19 and 18, his most since Week 9 (20).
- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the only wideout teammates to score double-digits against the Jets together… and they are just two of six wideouts to have double-digits this year.
- Tua Tagovailoa is just 20th (tied with Mitchell Trubisky and Taylor Heinicke) in TD/ATT (3.8%), and only three quarterbacks have multiple touchdown passes against the Jets (Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen).
Chiefs at Patriots, 1 p.m.
- If Isiah Pacheco plays, that suggests he’s ready to go (ie — he doesn’t need to rush back). The Chiefs’ backfield works well enough with the Jerick McKinnon/Clyde Edwards-Helaire duo that they don’t need to force Pacheco.
- The Patriots have the league’s lowest TD/ATT allowed at 1.8%. The Vikings and 49ers are tied behind them at 2.2%.
- Ezekiel Elliott is fifth in RBTouch% (83.3) with 26.0 TmTGT% (first) in the past two games without Rhamondre Stevenson.
Giants at Saints, 1 p.m.
- Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley are the Top 8 in FPPG, RBTouch% and TmTGT% — the only other running back who can say that is Christian McCaffrey.
- The Saints have allowed one wideout to reach 100+ receiving yards all year (Chris Godwin, Week 4) and one receiver touchdown since Week 8 (Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 13 on 49 yards).
- Chris Olave has five straight games with double-digits and is sixth in TmTGT% (46.3), 12th in receiving yards (401) and 15th in points (72.1) during that span.
Falcons at Panthers, 1 p.m.
- While the Panthers have allowed a double-digit score to every backfield but the Texans in Week 8 and Vikings in Week 4 (Mattison missed at 9.8), they’ve only given up two double-digit wideout scores since their bye (HOU, IND, CHI, DAL, TEN, TB, NO).
- Bijan Robinson has topped 60.9 RBTouch% just once but has 17.1, 25.8, 9.4 and 17.3 over his last four games with a touchdown in each — he’s RB8 in FPPG during those (17.5).
- Week 14 was Desmond Ridder’s third game with 300+ passing yards or 17+ points. Only two quarterbacks have topped 18.5 points against the Panthers and those were Weeks 5 and 6.
Commanders at Rams, 4 p.m.
- Without Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson would be a nice floor RB2/3 with Chris Rodriguez an RB3/4, hoping for a touchdown.
- The Commanders are the only team with games hitting the over in all but one week since Week 8.
- Kyren Williams has 74.5 RBTouch% in his games with the Rams (Weeks 1-6, 12-14) and averages 19.1 points in those — only behind Christian McCaffrey’s 22.0 for the year.
49ers at Cardinals, 4 p.m.
- If Michael Wilson can return, he’s a risk/reward WR4. If out, Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch are WR4/5 gamble plays.
- Brock Purdy leads the league with 15.4 YD/Comp, first in TD/ATT (9.6%) and is second to Dak Prescott with 6.5 TD/INT (Prescott 18.0).
- The Cardinals allow the second-highest TD/ATT at 6.7% behind the Commanders at 6.9%.
- As mentioned in the past, both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are amazing, but Aiyuk is the better play versus MAN with 3.75 YPRR versus 3.03 versus zone, and Samuel is 1.32 versus 3.33, plus 13.2 YD/TGT versus 13.1 (Aiyuk), and 8.2 versus 13.2 (Samuel), making Samuel better versus ZONE. The Cardinals run zone sixth-most (75.8%).
Cowboys at Bills, 4 p.m.
- The Bills ran three-wide 51.4% of the time through Week 7 (sixth-lowest), then 79.9% of the time from Weeks 8-13 (third-highest) without Dawson Knox, and back to 46.6% in Week 14 (sixth-lowest).
- The Cowboys have the third highest QB Pressure% (44.2), but since Week 6, Josh Allen hasn’t seen much of a TD/INT difference when under pressure or not with 1.7 TD/INT when pressured versus 1.4 when not.
Ravens at Jaguars, SNF
- Since Mark Andrews got hurt, Zay Flowers has 25.7 TmTGT% and 18.9 FPPG — those would rank 15th and second for the year.
- After losing Christian Kirk, Zay Jones leads the Jaguars in TmTGT% (25.0), receptions (10) and yards (107) but Parker Washington has both receiving touchdowns, despite two RZ and EZ targets to six and three for Calvin Ridley.
- Since Keaton Mitchell returned the second time (Week 9), he’s narrowly ahead of Gus Edwards in points thanks to big plays, but the RBTouch% is Edwards 40.7, Mitchell 38.9 and Justice Hill 20.4.
Eagles at Seahawks, MNF
- Since his second-highest rush attempt and touch totals in Week 9 (18 and 20), D’Andre Swift is averaging 10.8 carries and 12.3 touches with just 8.5 FPPG and 8.9, 3.0 and 3.9 the last three weeks.
- The only team without a double-digit running back score against the Seahawks (since Week 7) was the Rams when Kyren Williams was out.
- Week 14 was the first time since Dallas Goedert got hurt when DeVonta Smith didn’t score at least 12.6 points. Goedert didn’t look 100%, which is concerning for Smith once he does.
WEEK 15 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS
These are sleepers (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style — Woo-oo is worthy of the risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is if you need a Hail Mary). They will not mimic my rankings 100%. This is about chasing upside and often carries more risk — put simply, they are upside plays you might consider over a solid floor option.
Woo-oo Worthy
- QB: Sam Howell, WSH
- RB: Najee Harris, PIT; Ezekiel Elliott, NE
- WR: Zay Flowers, BAL; Jayden Reed, GB
- TE: Tucker Kraft, GB
Let’s Get Dangerous
- QB: Russell Wilson, DEN
- RB: Rico Dowdle, DAL; Keaton Mitchell, BAL
- WR: Noah Brown, HOU; Jordan Addison, MIN
- TE: Logan Thomas, WSH
FUN WITH RANKINGS!
If you read last week’s list, you knew what was coming this week. I ranked the best TV show intros — live action — and not without some debated ranks and missed great ones (according you all of you). So, I expect the same this week — debates, hate for my ranks and more!
Best Show Intros — Animated
- DuckTales — was there any doubt?
- X-Men — and it’s coming back! You know you’re playing that opening in your head. right. now.
- Batman: TAS — the best Batman ever!
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles — the original rules, and I initially didn’t love the Nickelodeon remake one, but it was a great intro and the best series they ever had
- Darkwing Duck — you knew this would make the Top 5
- Rescue Rangers — I looked up the lyrics at the time because I loved singing it and couldn’t understand all of them
- Transformers — More than meets the eye!
- Simpsons — doesn’t need an explanation
- Futurama — fun and like the Simpsons, always different and interesting things to look for
- Justice League: TAS — in the same realm as Batman TAS
- Pokemon — I wanna be the very best!
- Cowboy Bebop — you have to experience it if you’ve never seen it, so #CheckTheLink
- G.I. Joe — chorus makes it
- Flintstones — yabba dabba dooooo!
- One Punch Man — ONE PUNNNCCCCHHH!!!
- Gummi Bears — the 90s block was near perfection… though the Talespin intro won’t be making the list
- Animaniacs — it’s time for…
- Bojack Horseman — another intro you have to experience
- Aqua Teen Hunger Force — Meatwad make the money, see — bonus with the movie’s version of, “Let’s All Go to the Movies.”
- Spongebob Squarepants — are you ready kids?
- Spider-Man — hokey and yet still great
- Inspector Gadget — hum a few seconds to anyone, and they’ll know it
- Scooby Doo — people will hate me for it being this low, but hey, it’s my list
- Doug — Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do — nah nah nah nah nah nah nah nah
- Voltron — the music is great, and it’s essentially a breakdown of the Voltron story
Honorable Mention: Thundercats — thunder, thunder, Thundercats, hoooo! Rugrats — 90s kids Nick had some of the best non-lyrics intros; Sailor Moon — I still don’t know if the voice singing was supposed to sound semi-off; Tiny Toon Adventures — similar to Animaniacs; Dragon Ball Z, The Jetsons
WEEK 15 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and my ranks are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR
Projections Download LINK — Saturday Update
WEEK 15 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨
- There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to properly work.
- ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
- Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.
(Photo of Antonio Gibson: Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Source link
credite