Nobody has ever turned over a roster quite like Deion Sanders at Colorado this offseason, and given the air of mystery surrounding the team coming into the season, The Athletic asked coaches, analysts and personnel staffers around the Pac-12 what reasonable expectations should be for the Buffaloes.
The general consensus back then? A two- or three-win team. Well, that consensus hasn’t aged too well. Colorado is off to a shocking 3-0 start, is ranked 19th in the latest AP poll and has a high-profile showdown at No. 10 Oregon on Saturday afternoon.
Now that there’s three games of tape available and the Buffaloes are much less of a mystery, The Athletic spoke to six coaches, analysts and personnel staffers — some of whom had strong opinions about Colorado in the preseason — and asked for their revised thoughts about the Buffaloes now that they’ve actually seen them. They were again granted anonymity in exchange for their candid opinions.
“I would say they’ll get six wins. I think they’re a bowl team,” said one player personnel director who initially pegged Colorado for three wins. “They’ll have to pull off an upset to get that sixth one, but I would say they’re a bowl team with the amount of talent they have. This will be a tough little gauntlet here, but they’ll get Travis (Hunter) back for the last five games.”
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In August, when most inside the league were bearish on Colorado’s potential and envisioned a potential 1-4 start, there was one defensive analyst who brought up the potential for things to go the other way.
“In a different instance, they could come out and win three or four of those games, then where does it go?” the defensive analyst asked.
Now that the Buffaloes have wildly outperformed expectations, the analyst was asked why he’d allowed for the possibility they’d start fast.
“The expectations of them losing were kind of high but not really (in actuality),” he said. “When you look at it, the teams they were playing — TCU lost a lot of kids to the NFL, Nebraska had a new head coach and brand new team just like them. That was an in-the-air game for me. … Colorado State brought them a game. (Jay) Norvell just kind of choked. He should’ve gone for it on fourth-and-2 … or he should’ve went for 2 in the first overtime.”
Hunter, Colorado’s two-way standout, deservedly generates a lot of headlines for the Buffaloes, but quarterback Shedeur Sanders has been the star of their resurgence. Sanders is second among qualified FBS quarterbacks with 1,251 passing yards. He’s also second in attempts (136) and is completing 78.7 percent of his passes, which is fourth nationally. And he’s been good in clutch moments late against TCU and late in regulation and overtime last week against Colorado State.
“Their QB gives them a chance in every game, he’s a real-deal competitor,” one Pac-12 offensive analyst said before expanding: “ … I think that’s the thing everybody on the outside was unsure about in relation to how he would handle the transition to Power 5 football.”
Colorado’s offensive coaching staff, primarily coordinator Sean Lewis, has also turned heads through the first three games. The Buffaloes are averaging 41.3 points per game, which ranks 15th in the FBS.
“Shout out to their offensive coordinator and offensive line coach (Bill O’Boyle),” said a Pac-12 assistant coach who predicted Colorado would only win two or three games before the season. “I haven’t seen a better job from an O-line standpoint of at least keeping those guys competitive. I thought (Shedeur) would be running for his life.”
Still, Sanders has been hit quite a bit. Although the offense is scoring points, the line has been exploited the past few weeks after being pinpointed as a roster weakness in the preseason. Colorado has allowed 16 sacks through Week 3, which is tied for 130th nationally. There’s been no push in the running game, either.
According to TruMedia, Colorado ball carriers have been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 51.5 percent of their designed rushes this season, which is the worst in the Pac-12 and 117th in the FBS. Colorado is also averaging 3.9 yards per carry on designed rushes, 114th in FBS. The national average is 5.0 yards per carry.
That puts a lot of pressure on Sanders and the Buffaloes’ impressive set of wideouts.
“If you stop the pass, it’s a bad day for them because they have no run (game),” the defensive analyst said. “I think a lot of teams should go more dime package against them. I would.”
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What do Pac-12 staffers expect from Deion’s first year at Colorado? 2, maybe 3 wins
There are other troubling numbers, too.
The defense been extremely opportunistic, forcing 10 turnovers, which is tied for the national lead. But the unit ranks 105th in scoring defense (30.3 points), 109th in yards per play allowed (6.03), 121st in yards per rush allowed (5.01) and 95th in sacks (five).
So even though the Buffaloes are 3-0, it’s been a real high-wire act that has depended heavily on Sanders. And they’ll have to navigate back-to-back games against top-10 opponents Oregon and USC without Hunter.
With all that said, though, one Pac-12 personnel staffer said Colorado is “absolutely” a bowl team. A third personnel staffer said, “(Deion) has done a good job, but we don’t need to crown him. They struggled against CSU.”
Like always, there’s a range of opinions about this Colorado team. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
“I don’t think they will beat Oregon or SC. This is the critical point of the season,” said the offensive analyst, who acknowledged Colorado has been better than he expected. “What happens after these two games? I think they will continue to fight and always compete. I just don’t know if they will end up being in the top half of the Pac-12 when it’s all said and done.”
The Buffaloes still have Stanford and Arizona State on the schedule. Those teams, struggling under first-year coaches, appear to be two sure wins, which would get Colorado one win from bowl eligibility. The sixth win is harder to find.
The next games are at Oregon and home against USC. There are still games at UCLA, against Oregon State, at Washington State and at Utah. All six of those teams are ranked, and although it won’t be impossible for Colorado to win any of those games it’ll likely be an underdog in each of them.
“At the end of the day, they have better athletes than the other teams (they’ve faced),” the second personnel staffer said. “So it’ll be interesting to see someone who’s able to go punch for punch with them in that regard.”
At the moment, a Nov. 11 home game against Arizona seems like the best shot at a win outside of ASU and Stanford.
Colorado has been the surprise of the sport thus far. The college football world learned a lot about the Buffaloes against TCU, but as the first personnel director put it, “This (the Oregon game) is where you learn the second lesson, and learn a lot about them this week.”
“I think Oregon this weekend is not going to be pretty,” said the assistant coach, “but I’ve been eating my words a little early so we’ll see. If they pull this one off, I’ll shut the f— up.”
(Photo: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
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