(Graphic Illustration/MetroCreative)
As a child, I loved Christmas like most children do. But as a young adult, I began to sour on the holiday. However, as I began to leave young adulthood and transition into middle age, I’m back to enjoying Christmas. But how early is too early to begin decorating?
The goal of my wife and I is to wait until after Thanksgiving. Yet, we’ve been slowly breaking the rule, starting earlier with the decorating each year. Two weeks ago, Jessica found a good deal on an LED light Christmas tree and I began making room in the living room for where the tree usually goes.
“Are you dropping hints to set up the tree?” Jessica asked.
“No, but I know you’re going to want to see how it looks when you get home. And one thing will lead to another, and then we will have a decorated tree,” I said.
Sure enough, by that evening the tree was up and decorated. Last week, we finished the outside decorations. When my dad drove down to Charleston from St. Marys for Thanksgiving, he was greeted by a pop culture winter wonderland.
Much like our Christmas decorating, election season keeps beginning earlier and earlier. The January of the year in which an election falls is supposed to be when the season starts. That’s when the candidate filing period begins. Sure, candidates can file pre-candidacy any time before that, allowing them to fundraise. But usually, there isn’t fanfare for those filings. But now, they might as well be official candidate announcements.
Is it a good idea to announce so early? U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., announced his campaign for U.S. Senate mere days after winning the 2022 general election for his recently redistricted House seat. By contrast, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice didn’t officially enter the U.S. Senate Republican primary race until April of this year.
Yet, announcing less than two years out from the next big election hasn’t helped Mooney. In fact, he has been behind in every poll I’m aware of since the beginning of this year. Despite multimillion-dollar pledges from national conservative groups and dozens of bad stories for Justice, Mooney has been unable to gain traction.
So, what is Mooney to do? A representative for the Club for Growth said on WV MetroNews Talkline last week that they still stand squarely behind Mooney. To date, the conservative group has spent $33,222 on Mooney while spending $696,990 against Justice. Again, this spending doesn’t appear to be moving the needle away from Justice.
It doesn’t sound like Mooney is going to drop out of the U.S. Senate race, but what if he does? My friends at WMOV Radio in Jackson County released a poll last week conducted by American Pulse Research and Polling showing what would happen if Mooney jumps back into the 2nd Congressional District race. In short, Mooney enjoyed 41.1% support in the poll. But State Treasurer Riley Moore announced for Mooney’s seat in 2022 not long after Mooney announced for Senate.
Moore has been far and away the frontrunner in that race. But if Mooney gets back in, Moore’s support drops to 11.6%. Another 40.8% said they were unsure or don’t know. That gives Moore plenty of time to make up the difference.
As I said, both Mooney and Moore jumped into their respective races in November 2022. It’s one thing for presidential races to begin two years and sometimes three years out from an election. Those races cost tens of millions of dollars, and it takes longer to build name recognition and interest. Navigating primaries in multiple battleground states also makes starting early important.
But candidates in West Virginia only have one month to truly worry about: May, when early voting starts. May 14 is the primary election day in West Virginia. Sure, you have political junkies like myself who always pay attention, but I feel safe in saying the average voter is likely only paying attention to high-profile races such as Senate. Start as early as you wish, but most voters won’t engage with the primary races until closer to May.
That was one of the more interesting things I noticed in the WMOV/American Pulse poll. I can go through and tell you how well other statewide candidates did in the poll, but the number of poll respondents saying not sure/don’t know tells the story. For attorney general, 67.9% said they were unsure who to support or didn’t know; 58.2% were unsure/don’t know for secretary of state; 71.5% were unsure/don’t know in the two-man Republican primary for state auditor.
The fact is: many people, even likely voters, have other things to think about right now than politics. Many of the candidates in West Virginia statewide races announced months ago; some announced more than a year ago. But it simply doesn’t matter how early you announce when it comes to a statewide campaign.
You’d be better off putting up your Christmas tree 10 months early than announcing for public office a year prior to the election year.
Steven Allen Adams can be reached at sadams@newsandsentinel.com
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