•Fixed Income:
The New 10-Year Benchmark GOI 7.18 2033 traded between 7.28% – 7.39% during this week
Old 10-Year Benchmark GOI 7.26 2033 traded between 7.34% – 7.45% during this week, tracking movement in Crude Oil, Currency, US Treasury Yields and Inflation data.
•Auction Highlights
RBI conducted the Auction for G-sec, SDL, and T-Bill for the aggregated amount of INR 34,000 Crore, INR 10,250 Crore, and INR 24,000 Crore respectively.
G-sec:
7.17% GS 2030 (98.85/7.3959%)
7.18% GS 2037 (97.73/7.4444%)
7.25% GS 2063 (96.36/7.5387%)
SDL Cutoff:
05 Years: GJ 7.62%
06 Years: Gujarat has not accepted any amount in 6-year security.
10 Years: GA 7.70%, SI 7.75%, UK 7.71%
11 Years: UP 7.70%
12 Years: UP 7.69%
13 Years: PN 7.75%
15 Years: AP 7.67%
30 Years: TN 7.62%
T-Bill Cutoff:
091 Days: INR 7000 Crore 98.3125/ 6.8847%
182 Days: INR 8000 Crore 96.5678/ 7.1279%
364 Days: INR 9000 Crore 93.3485/ 7.1450%\u0009
•Commodities:
1)Brent Crude Oil: $85.418-$91.00 (Per barrel)
2)WTI Crude Oil: $82.31-$87.83 (Per barrel)
3)Gold: INR 5,820-INR 6,044 24 Carat (1 Gram)
4)Silver: INR 72,100-INR 74,100 (1 KG)
•US Treasury Yield:
1)US 2 Years Treasury: 4.92%-5.08%
2)US 5 Years Treasury: 4.54%-4.71%
3)US 10 Years Treasury: 4.53%-4.75%
•Corporate Bond Highlights
AAA 5 Years PSU Bond traded between 7.62%-7.68% this week.
AAA 10 Years Private Bond traded between 7.76%-7.84% this week.
•New Issuances:
Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited
Ratings: AAA/ Stable by ICRA & IND Ratings
Issue Size: 250 + 750 Cr
Maturity Date: 12/10/2033
Allocated 683 Crs at 7.75%
Powergrid Corporation of India Limited
Ratings: AAA/ Stable by CRISIL, ICRA & CARE
Issue Size: 500 + 1750 Cr
Maturity Date: 12/10/2033
Allocated 2250 Crs at 7.70%
Chaitanya India Fin Credit Pvt Ltd.
Ratings: A/ by CRISIL
Issue Size: 25 + 0 Crs
Maturity Date: 10/10/2026
Allocated 25 Crs at 10.10%
8.10% Kotak Mahindra Prime Limited
Ratings: AAA/ Stable by CRISIL & ICRA
Issue Size: 400 + 100 Crs
Maturity Date: 10/04/2026
Allocated 500 Crs at 100.06
Spandana Sphoorty Financial Limited
Ratings: A/Stable by IND
Issue Size: 30 + 30 Cr
Maturity Date: 24/02/2025
Allocated 30 Crs at 12.45%
8.85% Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited
Ratings: AA+/ Stable by ICRA & IND Ratings
Issue Size: 175 + 325 Crs
Maturity Date: 17/10/2033
Allocated 205 Crs at 100
•News Highlights:
INDIA
1)India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation moderated to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent in September from 6.83 per cent in August.
2)India’s industrial production in August rose to 10.3 per cent on an annual basis after growing 5.7 per cent in July, official data showed on Thursday. Factory output measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had contracted by 0.7 per cent in August 2022.
3)India’s Manufacturing production jumped 9.3% on year in August, accelerating from a 4.6% in July.
4)Retail inflation in the food basket declined to 6.56% in September on year from 9.94% in August, due to a sharp fall in prices of vegetables especially tomato and potato, edible oils and meat products.
5)India’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves dropped for the fifth straight week by a further $2.166 billion to $584.742 billion for the week ended October 6 – the lowest in more than five months, according to data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
6)The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lifted its 2023-24 growth projection for India to 6.3% from its July estimate of 6.1%, citing “stronger-than-expected consumption” during the June quarter. In contrast, the agency expects global growth of 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, with advanced economies expanding by 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024
7)The Indian government had no outstanding loans with the central bank under ways and means advances in the week ended Oct. 6, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s weekly statistical supplement released on Friday.
8)According to official data, gross direct tax receipts in India reached Rs 11.1 lakh crore as of October 9, 2023, marking an 18% increase from the same period last year. Net direct tax collection, after refunds, stood at Rs 9.6 lakh crore, a 21.8% rise.
9)RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das received an award for being ranked ‘A+’ in US magazine Global Finance’s Central Banker Report Cards 2023. The award recognises central bank governors whose strategies outperformed their peers through originality and tenacity.
10)The unemployment rate in urban areas decreased from 7.6% in April-June 2022 to 6.6% in April-June 2023 for persons aged 15 years and above, according to the periodic labour force survey’s quarterly bulletin shared by the government. For males, it decreased from 7.1% to 5.9% during this period. For females, it decreased from 9.5% to 9.1% during this period.
WORLD
1)The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its estimates for global real GDP growth in 2023 unchanged at 3.0% in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) but cut its 2024 forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% from its July forecast
2)The US Federal Reserve recently released minutes from its September monetary policy meeting. According to these minutes, participants acknowledged both upside risks to inflation and downside risks to economic activity. This suggests a two-sided challenge in achieving the Fed’s objectives. Policymakers also noted that as policy approaches its peak, decisions, and communications should start shifting toward a longer horizon of keeping rates higher for an extended period.
3)The US inflation rate remained steady at 3.7% on year in September compared to August, while core inflation rate eased to 4.1% from 4.3%
4)US PPI rose by 2.2% on year in September compared to revised 2% growth in August while care PPI rose by 2.7% on a year from revised 2.5%
5)The US Weekly Jobless claims came out: initial claims remained unchanged at 209,000. Continuing claims went from 208,750 to 206,250.
6)UK GDP increased to 0.50% on year in August compared to 0.30% in July. UK Balance of Trade widened to 3.415 bn pounds in August from 1.418 bn pounds in July.
7)UK industrial production increased 13% on year in August, up from 1% in July. while manufacturing production slowed 2.80% from 3.1%
8)France’s economy slowed to a 0.1% GDP growth rate in July-September 2023 as it narrowly avoided recession, according to an assessment of high frequency data by the Bank of France. France’s GDP had grown 0.5% in April-June 2023, the bank said. “The economy after the summer is less favourable than before summer,” the bank’s chief economist Olivier Garnier said.
9)The Central Bank of Argentina has raised the country’s benchmark interest rate from 118% to 133% shortly after data showed inflation in the South American country to be above expectations at 138% annually. A central bank poll of analysts forecasted Argentina’s inflation to end 2023 at over 180%. Argentinian government’s devaluation of peso by nearly 18% further worsened inflation.
10)Japan machine tool orders dropped 11.2% on year in September, after a 17.6% fall in October. Japan PPI rose by 2% on year in September, slowing from a marginally revised 3.3% gain in August
11)Japan bank lending increased 2.9% on year in September compared to 3.1% in the previous month
12)China’s inflation rate in decreased to 0% in September from 0.10% in August, while producer prices declined 2.5% compared to contraction of 3%.
13)China’s consumer prices were flat in September, while factory-gate prices shrank at slower pace, official data released on Friday showed. The data indicates that deflationary pressures continue to persist in the economy, Reuters and Bloomberg reported. While China’s economy has shown signs of stabilisation in the recent weeks, there are still concerns over the strength of recovery momentum.
14)The Republic of the Philippines is planning to raise up to US$1bn from a maiden sukuk issue after conducting a non-deal roadshow in September, as it strives to diversify its investor base toward Middle Eastern and Islamic countries.