Nikki Haley’s decision to stay in the GOP primary fight against former President Trump despite a string of losses is raising questions about her end game.
Haley has pledged to stay in the contest at least through Super Tuesday, when more than a dozen additional states will vote, arguing the primary should not be a coronation. But she has taken heat from Trump and his allies for continuing her bid into March.
Trump allies have snuffed out any suggestion that Haley could be positioning herself as an alternative to the former president should he be convicted in one of his criminal cases or bow out of the race.
“I think she knows her career is over and this is all about appeasing anti-Trump donors to take care of her on the way out,” said one pro-Trump Republican operative.
Haley has raked in millions of dollars and earned thousands of votes since the Iowa caucuses in January, evidence at least some in the party are interested in an alternative to Trump.
The former ambassador to the United Nations has thrown cold water on the idea of running as a third-party candidate with the political organization No Labels, but she has struggled to point to any state on the GOP primary calendar where she can beat Trump.
Haley last month was asked on Fox News if she views herself as an “insurance policy” depending on how Trump’s court cases turn out.
“I very much see myself as a Republican option that people can realize when you see Donald Trump can’t win and you know that we have to turn this country around, then I am your alternative. That’s what I’ve always tried to say is, look, let’s get somebody who can win,” Haley told the network.
The former president is facing four separate criminal trials: One in New York City, one in Georgia, one in Washington, D.C., and one in Florida. The New York City trial, which involves an alleged hush money scheme, is set to begin later this month.
Special counsel Jack Smith has proposed a July 8 start date for the Florida trial over Trump’s handling of classified documents and refusal to turn them over, which would put it just before the Republican National Convention.
Trump allies and Republican officials threw cold water on the prospect of Haley somehow stepping in as the nominee through any means other than winning the necessary delegates, which is an exceedingly unlikely scenario as Super Tuesday approaches.
Once Trump has secured the 1,215 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination, which he is expected to do no later than March 19, he will become the presumptive nominee. At that point, even a conviction in one of his criminal trials would not free those delegates. Any change in candidate would have to come at the Republican convention in July.
But GOP officials cast doubt on the chances of Haley winning a floor fight at the convention
One former Republican National Committee (RNC) official noted the vast majority of delegates would be loyal to Trump. Even if the former president bowed out of the race because of a conviction, health or other reasons, they would be unlikely to back Haley at the convention.
“Those Trump delegates aren’t going to back Haley. That person who he picks as running mate would have the strongest and likeliest odds of becoming the nominee,” one former Trump White House official said.
“It would be a really interesting test of the party,” they added.
Republican strategist Brady Smith said waiting for Trump to be out of the race for some reason might be one consideration the Haley campaign has, but it isn’t practical given the rising tensions between the two candidates.
Trump and Haley have been making increasingly sharper attacks against each other as the primary battle has continued. Trump called her “braindead” in a Truth Social post last month and brought up her husband’s absence from the campaign while he is serving abroad, while Haley has pushed against Trump’s comments on NATO and questioned his mental fitness for office.
“In a scenario in which the Democrats’ lawfare is successful and he is unable to make that run and you’re at convention, I don’t think everyone goes and gets in line with Nikki. I think they go, ‘You’re the person who’s been continuing to divide us against Trump,’” Smith said.
GOP strategist Jonathan Felts said he sees a similarity between Haley’s campaign and the one former Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) ran in 2008, which is “not where the GOP is right now,” even if Trump were to be out of the race.
He said he feels “very confident” that if Trump were not the nominee because of a conviction in one of his trials or some other reason, the nomination would not automatically go to Haley just because she would have the next highest number of votes and delegates.
“Aspiring to be the Dean Phillips of the Republican primary is a bad strategy for any candidate,” Felts said, referring to the Democratic Minnesota congressman running a long-shot primary challenge against Biden.
He said Haley has run a “great campaign” in which she outperformed expectations and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who was seen as the main alternative to Trump at the start of the race. But he argued that staying in longer would only hurt her future in the party.
Haley has said that if she were focused on her political future, she would have dropped out already.
“I’m not doing this for me,” she said.
Felts said if her campaign is more about helping Republicans win in 2024, she still has a role in the race, but if it’s more an “airing of grievances,” that could create obstacles for any future path she has.
“I would say she’s right on the edge. It’ll be interesting to see how she handles things on Wednesday morning,” he said.
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