2024 NFL Mock Draft: Team trades back into Round 1 for Michael Penix Jr.; AFC contenders keep adding weapons

The Bears traded Justin Fields to the Steelers and all that’s left to do is take Caleb Williams here.

I like Jayden Daniels more than Drake Maye — and I’d take him here. But Washington may feel differently; whatever happens, they have to take a QB here.

Maye reminds me a lot of Justin Herbert in that he didn’t have a lights-out final season in college and skeptics are wondering what he’ll look like at the next level. I think he’ll be a better pro than college QB, and even though ’23 was uneven at times, his ’22 tape is pretty good. The Patriots will likely get several very lucrative opportunities to move down from No. 3 but like Washington and Chicago above them, they desperately need a quarterback.

The Cardinals have to decide if they like WR2 or WR3 enough to move off of No. 4, where Marvin Harrison Jr. will be waiting. If so, they can trade down, get a haul, and potentially still land Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. I have them staying put, not overthinking it and taking Harrison here.

Now things get spicy. The Vikings package their two first-rounders — the No. 11 and No. 23 picks — to move up to No. 5 and take JJ McCarthy. Kirk Cousins signed with Atlanta and yes, Sam Darnold is now in the building, but there’s not a much better fit for JJ McCarthy than playing for Kevin O’Connell.

Best-case scenario for the Giants, assuming they don’t want a QB in the draft. Drew Lock provides depth behind Daniel Jones and the offensive line has been bolstered through free agency. Darren Waller could retire, so Brock Bowers is a consideration here, but Nabers is the easy choice for an offense that has lacked that type of playmaking ability since Odell Beckham Jr. was in New York.

The choice here is between Olu Fashanu and Joe Alt and while Fashanu is my OT1, Alt might be ready to start sooner. In Tennessee, he’ll line up next to ’23 first-rounder, Peter Skoronski.

The Falcons now have Rondale Moore and Darnell Mooney on the roster, reducing the likelihood of Rome Odunze. Instead, they beef up the pass rushers with Jared Verse.

It’ll be interesting to see which edge rusher goes off the board first; I lean slightly to Verse but could understand why a team prefers Turner, one of the most explosive players in this class. With Keenan Allen now in Chicago, the Bears — like the Falcons above — can focus on defense here. (Alternatively, now with just four picks in the entire draft, they could choose to trade down.)

Both New York teams get big-time playmakers … after both New York teams spent the early days of free agency trying to fix the offensive line. Garrett Wilson finally gets some help.

The Chargers have jettisoned many of their skill-position players, in part because of the salary cap, and also because Jim Harbaugh will likely lean on the run as he looks to jumpstart this offense. It’s why LA felt comfortable trading out of the No. 5 pick in this mock draft. And even with Olu Fashanu still on the board, Fuaga, who played right tackle at Oregon State, is the pick here. He can slide into the starting job on Day 1 and there are no projecting if he can play a new position (which would be the conversation with Fashanu).

Neither Denver nor Las Vegas was able to trade up in this mock draft for QB4 so they stay put and fill big needs on the the defense. Like Jared Verse vs. Dallas Turner, Terrion Arnold vs. Quinyon Mitchell will vary team by team, but both players have a chance to be special. For the Broncos, Arnold has the SEC pedigree, and after the success with Patrick Surtain Jr., going back to the Alabama well was an easy choice.

I wouldn’t call this ‘settling’ — Mitchell is my CB1 after a spectacular 2023 season, Senior Bowl and NFL combine.

Somehow Fashanu is still on the board. Trevor Penning hasn’t worked out at left tackle and Fashanu is too good to pass up in the middle of Round 1.

I thought long and hard about going CB here but WR won out. Michael Pittman is WR1 while Alec Pierce is still looking to find his form and Josh Downs is the slot threat. Thomas Jr. is a home run threat who can take some pressure off Pittman.

Troy Fautanu can play tackle but he may begin his NFL journey as a guard. And as it turns out, the Seahawks have a huge need at the left guard position.

Murphy is the best defensive linemen in this class and he could end up going higher than this. The Jags addressed other positional needs early in free agency, and even with the addition of Arik Armstead, Murphy makes a lot of sense here.

The Bengals added tight end Mike Gesicki — which doesn’t disqualify them from the Brock Bowers sweepstakes — but the offensive line remains an issue; right tackle JC Latham is a mauler and if he’s on the board Cincy has to take him.

Aaron Donald retired and while it would take 4-5 players to replace his production (and that may be underselling it), Newton is a twitched-up defensive lineman coming off a really good season for Illinois. Cornerback was also a consideration here.

The Steelers have their quarterback(s), their left tackle in ’23 first-rounder Broderick Jones, and they return to Georgia to get their right tackle in Amarius Mims, who, for me, is a better prospect coming out of college than Jones.

The Dolphins continue to get better on offense. There were a few trades above that were for other position needs that pushed Bowers down but it’s hard to envision how a top-10 player (he’s actually No. 6 on my big board) lasts this long. I get it. But as I’ve written in the past (repeatedly): In the last 20 years, 19 tight ends have gone in the first round. Five of those were selected in the top 10 (Eric Ebron, 10th overall in 2014; TJ Hockenson, 8th overall in 2019; Kellen Winslow II and Vernon Davis, 6th overall in 2004 and 2006; and Kyle Pitts, 4th overall in 2021). The other 14 were drafted between No. 19 and No. 32. And 10 months ago, Sam LaPorta lasted until Round 2.

If the Eagles trust Cam Jurgens at center, they can pass on Jackson Powers-Johnson here and instead focus on the secondary. DeJean is a big, strong, fast cornerback with return ability.

The Chargers trade down from No. 5 in this mock draft and get a starting right tackle and a starting cornerback — and Wiggins blew up the combine after an impressive ’23 season in which he played like a shutdown corner and improved as a tackler.

Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz are gone, Tyler Smith now moves from left guard to left tackle, and there are questions along the interior offensive line. Selecting Powers-Johnson here would be the easiest pick of the draft.

The Packers moved on from left tackle David Bakhtiari and while Rasheed Walker was serviceable, the team may want to add depth at the position. But with the top left tackles off the board, Green Bay looks to the secondary. Yes, Rakestraw only weighed 183 lbs. at the combine but his playing style reminds me of Devon Witherspoon … who weighed 181 at the combine a year ago.

The team has moved on from Matt Feiler and Aaron Stinnie, and while they’ve signed Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta, Graham Barton has Day 1-starter potential. He played left tackle at Duke but his NFL future will be inside.

The Cards land Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4, and somehow, Latu is still on the board at the bottom of Round 1. Two of the easiest picks in the first round.

Yes, the Bills signed Curtis Samuel but what is Stefon Diggs’ future in Buffalo? Instead of waiting around to find out, the team takes AD Mitchell here; he’s a big, explosive pass catcher who can dominate at all three levels.

It’s no surprise Chop flashed at the combine and his pro day, and while he had just four sacks last season for Penn State, he’s incredibly disruptive coming off the edge. In Detroit, he’ll make life easier for Aidan Hutchinson and a much-improved Lions defense.

This feels like a layup; Morgan Moses is now with the Jets and Tyler Guyton, who was dominant at right tackle for the Sooners last season, slides into the starting job.

In 2018, the Ravens traded back into the bottom of the first round to select Lamar Jackson. The compensation: Baltimore sent picks 52 and 125 in 2018, and pick 53 in 2019 to Philadelphia for picks 32 and 132 in 2018. In this mock draft, the Raiders send picks 44 and 148 in 2024, and a 2nd- and 4th-rounder in 2025 to move up to No. 31. Las Vegas gets the best deep-ball thrower in the class, in addition to arguably the best cornerback with pick No. 13.

Yes, Coleman ran a 4.61 at the combine but I do not care. At all. He also hit more than 20 mph in the gauntlet drill and didn’t drop a pass. We talk about the importance of game speed all the time and the only more obvious example might be Puka Nacua, who ran a 4.57 at the 2023 combine only to have a record-setting rookie campaign for the Rams. In KC he can be eased into the offense alongside Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown.