Analysis: All Blacks beware – Wallabies’ malaise could be contagious

Any lingering doubts about the strength of Northern Hemisphere rugby in comparison with the south have now presumably been swept away by the weekend’s World Cup results which were brought to a stunning conclusion by Australia’s 40-6 humiliation by Wales in Lyon this morning.

It just so happens that the All Blacks have returned to their base in Lyon after their bye week in Bordeaux and head coach Ian Foster would have been an interested spectator or viewer ahead of his own must-win pool game against Italy in the city on Saturday morning.

Foster apparently gets on well with Wallabies coach Eddie Jones and will likely sympathise with the Australian’s plight which many outsiders will see as at least partly self-inflicted.

Regardless, it wouldn’t pay for All Blacks supporters to delight too much in the Wallabies’ downfall because New Zealand rugby needs its Aussie counterpart to be strong for the game (particularly Super Rugby) to grow here, so it’s probably not stretching things to suggest the repercussions could travel all the way across the ditch and as early as next year.

If Ireland’s impressively composed 13-8 victory over the Springboks in Paris yesterday, which likely put the Irish into a quarter-final with the All Blacks should Foster’s men beat Italy and Uruguay, highlighted their mental strength and utter belief in each other, Wales’s dismantling of Australia put into focus the northern teams’ ability to ruthlessly punish errors.

The Wallabies were still in the game at halftime despite trailing 16-6 but they self-destructed in the second half in the face of Wales’s accuracy. Warren Gatland’s men aren’t the most talented bunch but they are well schooled in the fundamentals and that’s all it took to run over the top of their opponents, who looked shell-shocked by the end.

France have a far better squad than Wales but they didn’t need to do anything spectacular to beat the All Blacks in the World Cup opener beyond keeping the game tight and punishing New Zealand’s errors in the fourth quarter.

In the recent past, Scotland may have looked at a pool match against Tonga with some trepidation but their 45-17 demolition of the Ikale Tahi in Nice this morning after they trailed mid-way through the first half highlighted their quality and composure. They’re in a tough draw with Ireland and South Africa but their final pool game against the Irish in Paris on October 8 will be now be even more highly anticipated.

Eight years ago, the four semifinalists in England were all from the Southern Hemisphere, but it’s entirely possible that all four in France this year will be from the north.

Wales, Ireland, France and England are all unbeaten and are building a momentum that could be irresistible in the quarter-final stage.

Fiji, who could meet England in the quarters, could provide the south’s best hope which highlights their rapid progress in Super Rugby Pacific via the Drua, and the fall of New Zealand and Australia (and to a lesser extent South Africa, who face a potentially tough quarter-final against France in Paris).

Where has the north’s progress come from? Undoubtedly from the Six Nations, which is far superior to the Rugby Championship, as well as the domestic European competitions which produce a varied game across all types of conditions in front of big crowds and with the intensity to match.

Super Rugby has given Fiji the high-performance platform they needed to take the next step but it’s clear that playing Australian sides spread too thinly across five franchises has done little to improve New Zealand’s game or Australia’s.

Occasional New Zealand derby matches apart, the game is no longer intense enough to be true Test match preparation and part of the problem is that virtually every Kiwi and Aussie team plays the same way.

England have beaten Rugby Championship side Argentina despite playing with 14 men for most of it. Fiji beat Australia for the first time in 69 years. South Africa’s vaunted “bomb squad” was defused by a smarter and more clinical Ireland, and the All Blacks appear caught between playing styles ahead of a high-pressure match against Italy.

The 18-3 victory by the defending champion Springboks over Scotland is the sole success by a Rugby Championship nation over their northern counterparts in France.

New Zealand has traditionally been seen as an isolated breeding ground of rugby intelligence and skill but now that the rest of the world has caught up that isolation may now be starting to drag the All Blacks down.

What’s Super Rugby next year going to look like with Australian sponsors and fans turned off by the Wallabies’ disaster in France?

This feels like a significant moment for the game in Australasia but that will be nothing in comparison to what could be coming in a few weeks.