Analysis: ‘Sucker punch’ power – How All Blacks can hurt Boks in final

Analysis: TVNZ rugby experts Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry discuss two very different World Cup semifinals and make their predictions for the showpiece in Paris.

PM: Well Scotty, here’s a sentence I didn’t think I’d be writing a couple of months ago: the All Blacks are in the World Cup final against the world champions.

Let’s start with their semifinal demolition of Argentina before we move to a very different second one between England and the Boks. What did you like about it from an All Blacks’ perspective?

SS: Oh, ye of little faith! Yes, it is a blockbuster final, though the hosts and the collectively vanquished may feel differently. The foreign reporting on that All Blacks semifinal was fragranced with the burnt husks of false hope and hubris.

The demolition job on the Pumas was a portrait of professionalism. The All Blacks once again let the game come to them before playing a game all their own. The Pumas had no chance. I remember thinking after the Jordie Barrett first half try that the two teams were operating in different artistic realms. The monochromatic phase play of the Pumas looked positively anachronistic against the technicolour flair of the New Zealanders.

This felt in every way a clinical, focused, precision hit job. Decrying the final scoreline, and moaning about the one-sided nature of the contest, did the All Blacks a disservice. Any other team that performed the way they did would have been lionised by the press.

One black mark: the yellow card to Scott Barrett. That was higher order doofusness. Those backyard footy moments need to be purged from the playbook.

That’s my take. What about yours, Pat? And do please lead us bravely into a dissection of the Boks’ one-pointer against the English.

PM: Difficult to disagree with any of that. It was indeed clinical after another slightly dusty start. Will Jordan got the biggest headlines with his hat-trick, but defensively the All Blacks were outstanding. Jordie Barrett was operating on a different level and was genuinely hurting people in the end.

And you’re right to take the saltiness of the Northern Hemisphere media with a… grain of salt. Many among Ireland’s media probably still need a wee lie down after seeing their hopes of reporting on the entirety of the tournament dashed. They were clearly very confident their team would make it to this point whereas England’s seemed a little bemused that they made it as far as they did.

Speaking of which, the England v Boks semifinal was… a little different. The French among the crowd at the Stade de France made their views of the referee Ben O’Keeffe known when they jeered him to the heavens as he warmed up pre-kickoff. And they continued intermittently throughout.

It made for an odd, angry atmosphere — appropriate really given the “action” on the field. I say action but it was limited to tackling and kicking. The ambition levels were close to zero but that didn’t mean it wasn’t a gripping contest.

In the end, England paid the price for that lack of attacking intent.

What did you make of the Boks? They appeared rattled and heading for the exit door until Ox Nche came on and virtually destroyed England’s scrum singlehandedly, didn’t they?

SS: A little detour here if I may. Rugby needs to take a much harder line on referee “abuse”. And I don’t blame the punters here. There are meatheads everywhere who wouldn’t know the offside line from a collapsed maul. My finger points directly at players and former players who use their platform to attack the officials. That opens the door for lesser minds to go all in.

The claim from former England captain Lawrence Dallaglio that O’Keeffe “won the game” for the Springboks was simply out of order. Antoine Dupont was no better in the aftermath of France’s quarter-final exit. New Zealand’s history here is hardly a beacon of hope either (especially considering the appointment for the final — one Wayne Barnes), but collectively something needs to change.

The officials during the knock-out phases have been exemplary. They deserve better, especially from those in positions of influence. Then again, rugby may well be the only sport in which the appointment of a referee becomes a central story.

With that out of the way, I thought England executed their game plan brilliantly and indeed had the Springboks rattled. Nche was a beast in that final quarter, as was Vincent Koch.

Bongi Mbonambi going the full 80 was incredible. The South African bench stood up again, but that wasn’t the real story for me. The real story is England’s inability to do anything other than follow one plan.

You touched on it above when you state their lack of attacking intent cost them. At no stage was there a move through a different gear. Ultimately, teams need a second dimension to succeed against the best. England had but one. It was brutally cruel to watch them capitulate, but you can only admire the defending champions for reading the tea leaves.

Belief is such a powerful potion, and the Springboks fell into the cauldron as babies. In atrocious conditions they simply summoned the requisite composure to finish over the top of England. And that’s why they are the world’s number one side.

The mastery of their squad rotation in-game is genius, their faith in systems unshakable. Their closers aren’t all power-players either. Kwagga Smith and Deon Fourie deserve plenty of credit for swinging the game back in South Africa’s favour.

A side note: I loved that match. My favourite of the cup. Chess in raincoats.

From what you saw, and given the Boks have gone back to back by the barest of margins, do the defending champions deserve to be favourites this weekend?

PM: No, I think the All Blacks deserve to be narrow favourites because I’m not sure how much the Boks have left in the tank.

The All Blacks have had an extra day to prepare and, mentally and emotionally anyway, had an easier semifinal. They had that won virtually by halftime.

As you say, the Boks’ utter belief in themselves got them home against England, who, by the way, kicked away 93 per cent of their possession — that’s an extraordinary stat.

Boiling it all down, the All Blacks will challenge the South Africans in more ways than England could, and if Ian Foster’s men have a good foundation after an hour, the world champs may struggle to stay with them.

By the way, I agree with you re Dallaglio’s comment. It was outrageous and reckless.

Do you see the match-up in the same way? And which weaknesses among the All Blacks do you see the Boks attempting to exploit?

SS: I agree. The All Blacks have grown immensely throughout this tournament and for reasons listed above deserve the favourite’s tag. The All Blacks’ defensive system is now able to operate in different modes and their attack is much less cluttered than it was.

England exposed a flaw in South Africa’s kick defence (that should have been fatal) and that is the wingers are not tall men and can be picked off with good kick chasing. England never tried to catch kicks, just climbed high for knock backs. It was a great strategy and one the All Blacks will employ.

That said, New Zealand’s structured kicking game has not been entirely accurate over the last couple of weeks, and unless this is on point, the likes of Handre Pollard and Faf de Klerk will force the All Blacks into positions they aren’t entirely comfortable in.

Scrums are a crapshoot but the Boks will power up in the closing stages when there are, statistically, more scrums.

A topic for another day: is it best to start your best scrummagers, or finish with them? Remind me to delve into that at another time. As for lineouts, the All Blacks have the best competitive lineout in the tournament. The Springboks will naturally look to the driving maul but they have to win possession first.

If conditions are right, I have no doubt the Boks will look to use pace, despite their reliance on the kick. (Shades of 2019 anyone?). Damian de Allende v Jordie Barrett is a box office match-up and Cheslin Kolbe v Jordan is a headline act.

Forget Twickenham. These forward packs are equal. The respective benches, and the attendant sub strategies, are my battlegrounds.

So that’s my take on the Boks. Tell me sage one, how do you see the All Blacks breaking this game down?

PM: By taking two leaves at least from England’s playbook and targeting their lineout and driving maul and smashing their close-in runners behind the gain line, forcing them to kick under pressure.

The All Blacks also reaped dividends by turning and tiring the Irish and Argentine packs with short kicks. I’d expect more of the same on Sunday morning against a Boks’ eight which now must be running on fumes.

And you?

SS: I understand but am wary of the talk about fatigue. South African sides play on a very different emotional plane to New Zealand teams, and I have no doubt they will be up for the contest in every level. However, the work load on the likes of Mbonambi, Franco Mostert and Pieter-Steph du Toit has been huge.

Margins are thin here. New Zealand has a gear other teams haven’t been able to find or engage at this World Cup and if they drop the clutch again, that’s their trump card.

The “sucker punch”, as Johnny Sexton called it, is the All Blacks’ ace in the hole. Absorb when required, and with discipline, then score from early phase as has been their MO.

I think this final could come down to one of those classic points blitzes — the three tries in 15 minutes routine that we know the New Zealanders are capable of.

The tighter this gets, the more the Springboks will control tempo. Nine points was not enough for England in terms of advantage. Coming into that closing quarter, the side that hopes to win would like to be a whole lot clearer in front.

I am with you in that the All Blacks will use the chip to good effect. I also believe we’ll see a lot more variety on New Zealand midfield plays to bend the South African line and ask questions of the back three.

Picking a score?

PM: Yes, I agree with the sucker punch theory and I think the All Blacks have a greater potential to increase their score by five or seven points at a time. As we’ve seen, though, Handre Pollard’s boot is lethal even on his side of halfway. Just on that three-point threat, and as you’ve foreshadowed, Barnes will be on the whistle. The right choice in my opinion.

I’m picking All Blacks by nine points — let’s say 24-15.

You?

SS: I’m extremely happy that Barnes gets a World Cup final as a swansong. What an incredible servant to the game he has been, and there are none better.

I hate score predictions. How about 15-12 after extra time? This time in the All Blacks’ favour. That would be quite something. Apart from that throwback, I’ll up the other side and call it 24-18 All Blacks.