Bank of Korea holds rates, China PMI contracts

China’s factory activity shrank for a second straight month in November, signaling that the world’s second-largest economy is not yet out of the woods and may require more muscular policy support.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell slightly to 49.4 in November from 49.5 in October, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Thursday. This was slightly worse than the median forecast for 49.7 in a Reuters poll.

South Korea’s central bank held its benchmark policy rate at 3.5% for the seventh meeting in a row, in line with expectations from economists polled by Reuters.

In its announcement, the Bank of Korea said that “although inflation has been elevated than previously expected, it is projected to continue its underlying trend of a slowdown.”

Most notably, the BOK thinks that concerns about a further tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks have been alleviated.

However, it also said that global economic growth is projected to continue slowing in 2024, driven by restrictive monetary policy stances in major countries.

— Lim Hui Jie

Retail sales rose in Japan, but at the slowest pace so far this year, while industrial output during the same month increased more than expected.

Official data showed Japan retail sales rose 4.2% last month, lower than a Reuters poll estimate of a 5.9% increase. It also was the smallest gain in Japanese retails since December 2022.

Japan’s factory output gained 1.0% in October, above forecasts for a 0.8% rise.

The Japanese yen strengthened against 0.20% at 146.96 against the dollar.

— Shreyashi Sanyal

South Korea’s industrial output slid 3.5% month-on-month in October, surprising expectations from economists polled by Reuters who were forecasting a 0.5% rise.

The fall came after a revised 1.7% rise in September and marked the biggest monthly decline since October 2022.

On a year-on year basis, industrial output grew 1.1%, slower than the 2.9% seen in September and sharply lower than the 5.2% expected by economists.

Separately, retail sales in the country slid 0.8% month-on-month in October, a deeper contraction compared with the revised figure of a 0.1% fall in September.

— Lim Hui Jie

Three stocks are on the verge of taking off, according to a chart pattern closely watched by technical analysts.

The phenomenon, known as a “golden cross”, occurs when a stock’s 50-day moving average share price rises above the longer-term 200-day moving average. Wall Street regards the pattern as a bullish sign of a potential rally to come.

It comes at a time when the S&P 500 has rallied by nearly 10%, and charting analysts expect to see the index rally further.

Technical analysis is often used to identify an entry point for stocks. To be sure, the process uses historical data to chart future outcomes, which are not guaranteed.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more the three stocks here.

— Ganesh Rao

Autonomous vehicles – or vehicles embedded with chips and sensors to enable self-driving – have been picking up steam, and several stocks make good plays of the theme, according to Fubon Research.

“Automobiles will drive the next industrial revolution, replicating the development of the smart phone industry. As countries are focused on vehicle safety, they are enforcing the installation of ADAS (Advanced Driving Assistance System),” analysts at the research house wrote in a Nov. 27 note distributed by Jefferies.

Autonomous and power transportation systems such as electric vehicles are expected to grow at an annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of 24% to hit $324 billion in 2030 – making them the industry’s “largest growth segments,” they analysts added.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more on the stocks to play, here.

— Amala Balakrishner

Depending on whether it will be a higher-for-longer regime or if rates start to come down, investors might be wondering if they should stay invested in cash, or start flocking to bonds.

UK asset management firm Schroders noted that it’s now possible to earn 5% on cash deposits in the U.S. and U.K., and between 3% to 4% in Europe. That’s quite similar to what investors can get on government bonds, while high-quality corporate bonds yield more at nearly 6.5% in the U.S. and U.K., and 4.6% in Europe.

“But bond prices can go up and down whereas cash doesn’t. This has led many investors to wonder: is it worth bothering with bonds?” it said.

Here’s what the pros say on how to invest within the fixed income space – cash or bonds – in the next two years and beyond.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

Gross domestic product grew at an even stronger than expected pace in the third quarter, the Commerce Department announced Wednesday.

GDP, a measure of all goods and services produced during the July-through-September period, accelerated at 5.2% annualized pace, better than the 5% Dow Jones forecast and above the initial estimate of 4.9%. This was the second of three readings on the key economic number.

The upgrade came mostly from revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending, while consumer expenditures were revised lower.

–Jeff Cox

Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman said the Federal Reserve could start cutting rates as soon as the first quarter of 2024, according to Bloomberg’s David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations.

“We’re betting that the Federal Reserve is going to have to cut rates more quickly than people expect,” Ackman said in an upcoming episode of the show. “That’s the current macro bet that we have on.”

Market pricing projects a 78% chance that the Fed will start cutting in May and lop a full percentage off the fed funds rate by the end of 2024, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

The hedge fund manager revealed last month that he covered his bet against long-term Treasurys, believing that investors may increasingly buy bonds as a safe haven because of growing geopolitical risks.

— Yun Li

Oil prices settled more than 1% higher on Wednesday as futures contracts gain momentum ahead of key OPEC meeting tomorrow.

The West Texas Intermediate crude contract for January rose $1.45, or 1.9%, to settle at $77.86 a barrel, while the Brent crude contract for January rose $1.42, or 1.74%, to settle at $83.10 a barrel.

Oil has rallied about 4% since Monday’s close.

OPEC and its allies, OPEC+, are set to hold a virtual meeting tomorrow on production cuts. Sources told Reuters that deeper cuts as well as rolling over current cuts are both on the table.

Meanwhile, a storm on the Black Sea has disrupted oil production in Kazakhstan. The Central Asian nation’s three largest oilfields slashed production by more than 50% due to the storms.

The storms disrupted loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal that Kazakhstan uses to export.

— Spencer Kimball

Economic activity has slowed broadly over the past six weeks, while labor demand also has backed off and price increases have eased, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday in its periodic “Beige Book” summary.

The report showed that consumers showed more “price sensitivity.” In the jobs market, firms reported an easier time finding labor and were more comfortable laying off underperformers.

On inflation, the report said prices for construction materials declined, though utilities and insurance costs rose. In general, the report saw businesses saying they see “moderate” price increase continuing into 2024.

—Jeff Cox