Last week marked the return of the successful Stewart Mandel Upset Special (Georgia State over Louisiana), but also, the return of the Stewart Mandel failure to crack .500 against the spread. I’m just trying to get bowl-eligible by season’s end.
Last week: 5-6 against the spread.
Season: 41-46-1.
No. 6 Oklahoma (-10) at Kansas, Noon (Fox)
Kansas is one of these teams that has been much stronger at home (4-0, with every win by double digits) than on the road (1-2, including a 40-14 loss at Texas). So just playing in The Booth gives the Jayhawks a chance. But Kansas’ 100th-ranked defense continues to lag far behind its explosive offense. Sooners QB Dillion Gabriel should have a day.
Oklahoma 38, Kansas 30
The pick: Kansas +10
South Carolina at Texas A&M (-14), Noon (ESPN)
Both teams are mired in disappointing seasons, but the Aggies at least boast a top-20 national defense. They’re tied for second nationally in sacks (29) and can bring the heat on Spencer Rattler. Conversely, the Gamecocks’ 115th-ranked defense is awful. It could be an opportunity for Aggies running back Le’Veon Moss to put up some numbers.
Texas A&M 29, South Carolina 14
The pick: Texas A&M -14
No. 8 Oregon (-6.5) at No. 13 Utah, 3:30 (Fox)
No love for the Utes at Rice-Eccles? Oregon has the decided advantage at quarterback, but Bo Nix may be facing his toughest opposing defense of the season. Utah’s offense has taken on a new dimension with the emergence of running back/safety Sione Vaki, but the Ducks are tough against the run. Utes quarterback Bryson Barnes will have to make some plays.
Utah 33, Oregon 30
The pick: Utah +6.5
BYU at No. 7 Texas (-17.5), 3:30 (ABC)
I often referred to BYU as a de facto Power 5 program during its independent run, so perhaps it’s no surprise the 5-2 Cougars have been the best of the four Big 12 newcomers. However, none of the teams they’ve defeated currently have a winning record. Even without Quinn Ewers, Texas may deliver a rude humbling.
Texas 34, BYU 10
The pick: Texas -17.5
No. 20 Duke at No. 18 Louisville (-4), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Duke’s prospects for this one grow dim if quarterback Riley Leonard can’t play after suffering an ankle injury last week against Florida State. The Blue Devils’ offense ground to a screeching halt when redshirt freshman Henry Belin IV had to step in. The Cardinals are at home and coming off a much-needed idle week. That’s a bad recipe for Mike Elko’s squad.
Louisville 24, Duke 13
The pick: Louisville -4
No. 1 Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Gators have done a nice job of making me look like an idiot for picking them to go 3-9. They are in fact 5-2. There’s still a sizable gap between these two programs, but I’m curious to see what the Dawgs’ offense will look like without indispensable TE Brock Bowers. If it struggles, there could be a window of opportunity for Florida.
Georgia 27, Florida 14
The pick: Florida +14.5
No. 21 Tennessee (-3.5) at Kentucky, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
This one’s tough. Neither team has been overly impressive. They’re both inconsistent. Kentucky took a lot of of momentum into its game at Georgia only to get drubbed. The Vols’ defense had been a strength most of the year, but it folded in the second half last week against Alabama. When in doubt, take the home team.
Kentucky 27, Tennessee 24
The pick: Kentucky +3.5
No. 3 Ohio State (-14.5) at Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m. (NBC)
Wisconsin has been one of the Big Ten’s strongest programs for decades — and yet even the Badgers have managed to beat the Buckeyes only once since 2007. And Luke Fickell’s first Wisconsin team is not nearly on the level of those great Wisconsin teams of past. It can muck it up for Ohio State, but it’s hard to see a path to the upset.
Ohio State 23, Wisconsin 10
The pick: Wisconsin +14.5
GO DEEPER
Can Wisconsin bring upset magic back to Camp Randall? Badgers are on to Ohio State
Colorado at No. 23 UCLA (-17), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
I highly doubt this one will include the Buffs taking a 29-0 lead. UCLA has one of the nation’s top pass-rushing units — not ideal with CU’s horrendous pass protection. UCLA’s offense had been languishing but blew up last week against Stanford with veteran QB Ethan Garbers taking back the reins from Dante Moore.
UCLA 34, Colorado 14
The pick: UCLA -17
No. 11 Oregon State (-3.5) at Arizona, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Arizona has been one of the season’s most pleasant surprises. Jedd Fisch’s 4-3 team can score points, but it also has a much-improved defense. The Wildcats have faced the likes of Michael Penix Jr., Caleb Williams and Cam Ward, yet have allowed just five passing TDs on the season. They’ll make life difficult for Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei.
Arizona 27, Oregon State 24
The pick: Arizona +3.5
Mandel’s Upset Special
No. 22 Tulane (-10.5) at Rice, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
This is a big opportunity for Mike Bloomgren’s Owls, 4-3 and aiming for their first winning season since 2014. Tulane is 6-1 but by no means on the same level as last year’s Cotton Bowl squad. It took the Green Wave all four quarters last week to put away 3-4 North Texas. JT Daniels earns his biggest win since leading Georgia in the 2020 Peach Bowl.
Rice 26, Tulane 24
The pick: Rice +10.5
(Photo of Noah Fifita: Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)
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