The week beginning October 16 is packed with important national and global macroeconomic data releases that could potentially impact the financial markets.
In India, WPI inflation readings for the month of September will be released next week (October 16). Additionally, figures for bank loan growth and deposit growth data will be released by the Reserve Bank of India. Furthermore, there will be one new Initial Public Offering (IPO) launch, and one IPO will close for subscription. Indian stock markets are also waiting for the RBI MPC Meeting Minutes. The forthcoming week will see a flurry of Q2 earnings reports from companies in the financial, information technology, and retail sectors.
On the global front in the next week, inflation data releases from the UK and Eurozone (October 18) are important. In addition, GDP numbers will be out from China for Q3 (October 17). Also, in the upcoming week, trade data will come out from Eurozone (October 16) and Japan (October 18).
Here’s a preview of important Economic and Market events, along with upcoming macroeconomic data releases in India and across the world for the upcoming week.
October 16
India WPI Inflation Sep
India WPI Inflation/WPI Food/WPI Manufacturing September
India’s Wholesale price inflation (WPI) remained in negative for the fifth straight month in August at -0.52 percent. In August last year, WPI inflation was 12.48 percent. The WPI based inflation rate has been in the negative since April, was -1.36 percent in July. Wholesale inflation in vegetables was 48.69 percent in August, against 62.12 percent in July. In pulses, inflation was 10.45 percent, while in onion it skyrocketed to 31.42 percent in August. In manufactured products, inflation rate was -2.37 percent, as against -2.51 percent in July.
India’s wholesale inflation likely rose above zero for the first time in six months in September thanks to an unfavourable base effect as well as a rise in domestic prices. According to the median of estimates of six economists, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation may have jumped to 0.7 percent last month.
Arvind and Company Shipping Agencies IPO subscription to close
Arvind and Company Shipping Agencies IPO in the small and medium enterprise (SME) segment will close for subscription on October 16. The company, which opened for bidding on October 12 operates a chartering business, including barges for commercial purposes, intends to raise Rs 14.74 crore via the IPO. The Gujarat-based company’s offer comprises a fresh issue of shares. Proceeds from the issue will be used mainly for the capital expenditure of the company.
Eurozone Trade Balance Aug
In July, the Eurozone shifted from a 36.3 billion euro deficit in the previous year to a trade surplus of 6.5 billion euros. For the January to July period, the trade balance also showed a surplus of 2.7 billion euros, improvement from the 188.1 billion euro deficit recorded in the same period in 2022.
October 17
UK Unemployment rate Aug
In July 2023, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom rose to 4.3 percent, a slight increase from June’s rate of 4.2 percent.
US Industrial Production Sep
In August 2023, the United States saw a year-on-year increase of 0.25 percent and a month-on-month increase of 0.38 percent in industrial production.
US Manufacturing Production Sep
In August 2023, manufacturing output in US factories showed a marginal increase of 0.1%, a decline from the 0.4% growth observed in July 2023. On a YoY basis, there was a 0.6% decrease in output in August.
China GDP Q3
In Q2 (April-June), the GDP inched up by 0.8%, which marked a slowdown from the 2.2% growth recorded in the preceding quarter, Q1 (January-March). On a year-on-year basis, the GDP expanded by 6.3% in Q2.
China Industrial Production Sep
In August, China’s industrial output expanded by 4.5% compared to the same month the previous year, marking an increase from the 3.7% growth observed in July.
October 18
IRM Energy’s IPO to open for subscription
Gujarat-based city gas distribution company IRM Energy has fixed the price band at Rs 480-505 per share for its maiden public issue which will open on October 18. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/ipo/irm-energy-sets-ipo-price-band-at-rs-480-505-hopes-to-raise-rs-545-crore-11511291.html The Cadila Pharmaceuticals-backed company plans to raise Rs 545.40 crore from the public offer of 1.08 crore equity shares at the upper price band.
UK CPI/Core CPI Sep
In August 2023, the UK CPI recorded a 6.7 percent increase in the 12-month period, a slight decrease from the 6.8 percent reported in July. On a monthly basis, CPI in August 2023 increased by 0.3 percent, compared with the 0.5 percent rise observed in August 2022. The Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, registered a 6.2 percent increase in the 12 months leading to August 2023, down from the 6.9 percent reported in July.
Eurozone CPI/Core CPI Sep
The preliminary estimate indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth in the Eurozone was 4.3 percent YoY in September, a decline from the 5.2% recorded in August. On a monthly basis, CPI is estimated to have grown by 0.3 percent. In the final report, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone for August 2023 was at 5.2 percent YoY, down from the 5.3 percent in July. The core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, decreased to 4.5 percent based on the preliminary estimate, down from the 5.3 percent reported in August.
Japan Exports/Imports/Trade Balance Sep
Japan recorded a trade deficit of ¥930.48 billion, equivalent to $6.3 billion, in August. There was a 0.8% decrease in exports from the previous year, amounting to ¥7.99 trillion. Imports witnessed decline, falling by 17.8% to ¥8.92 trillion.
October 19
US Initial Jobless Claims
For the week ending October 7, the initial claims figure stood at 209,000, unchanged from the revised level of in the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 206,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
US Fed Chair Powell to speak
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. Traders pay meticulous attention to his speeches, as they frequently contain clues about prospective monetary policies.
Japan National CPI/Core CPI Sep
In August, the national consumer price index (CPI) reported a 3.2% increase in inflation, while the national core consumer price index, which excludes the volatile prices of fresh food, recorded a 3.1% rise during the same month.
India Bank loan growth/deposit growth
For the fortnight ended September 22, 2023, bank loans grew by 20 percent YoY. In absolute terms, loans expanded by Rs 25.2 lakh crore to reach Rs 151.5 lakh crore in September 22, 2023, compared to September 22, 2022. Deposit mobilisation increased 13.2 percent YoY during the period. In absolute terms, deposits expanded by Rs 22.4 lakh crore and reached Rs 192.8 lakh crore as of September 22, 2023, compared to September 22, 2022.
RBI MPC Meeting Minutes
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), as expected, left the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends short-term funds to banks, unchanged at 6.5 percent on October 6. On GDP growth, the MPC’s forecast for 2023-24 was left unchanged at 6.5 percent. The overall tone of the bi-monthly monetary policy remained tilted towards the inflation fight. In the October MPC decision, Das said that CPI inflation forecast for 2023-24 left unchanged at 5.4 percent. The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The breakdown of the MPC members, interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes.
Earnings from India and the US in the coming week
The upcoming week is packed with Q2 earnings results from the financial, information technology, and retail sector companies.
Market participants will be watching important results scheduled to come out from Ceat, Jio Financial Services (Oct 16), Bajaj Finance, ICICI Pru Life, VST Industries (Oct 17), Wipro, Bajaj Auto, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, LTIMindtree (Oct 18), Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Ultratech Cement, Nestle India (Oct 19), CSB Bank, J&K Bank, JSW Steel, L&T Finance (Oct 20), ICICI Bank, Yes Bank (Oct 21),
In the United States, major companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs (Oct 17), Tesla, Procter & Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Netflix, Morgan Stanley (Oct 18), Nokia, Ericsson, Alaska Air, American Airlines Group (Oct 19), American Express Company (Oct 20), are set to release their quarterly reports.
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