Massive dengue, zika outbreaks, 10,000 additional deaths: Damning climate report forecasts new health horrors in UK – News Healthcare

Amid growing concerns over the climate crisis, a report warns of a marked increase in the number of deaths every year in the United Kingdom. The stark report has cautioned that the climate crisis will likely lead to as many as 10,000 additional deaths annually in the UK by the 2050s due to extreme heat, and could introduce various tropical diseases.

A document published by the UK Health Security Agency pictures the worst-case scenario which would see an average temperature increase of 4.3 degrees Celsius, it is projected that heat-related deaths could surge twelvefold by 2070. The report also indicates a potential one-and-a-half times rise in deaths by the 2030s.

The UKHSA’s Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) report has provided these figures, which bring to light the current impact of the climate crisis on health outcomes in Britain.

According to the report, diseases that are transmitted by insects- such as Zika or Dengue – can be transmitted widely across the UK owing to the arrival of species that are native to hotter countries.

The report also suggests that the mosquito that transmits dengue, Zika and the chikungunya virus – the Asian Tiger mosquito – could potentially be established in most of England by the 2040s and 2050s. Later in the century, most of Wales, Northern Ireland, and sections of the Scottish Lowlands are expected to also become suitable habitats. Additionally, the report suggests that by 2060, London may experience an endemic transmission of dengue fever.

According to the chief scientific officer at UKHSA, Prof Isabel Oliver, the report starkly highlights the potential impact of climate change on society if it fails to take decisive action. Significant effects are anticipated on both physical and mental health, with the changing climate amplifying current health disparities.

UKHSA, however, made it clear that several of these predictions are rooted in the worst-case scenario. It also says that several of these detrimental impacts of climate change on health outcomes can potentially be erased.

The erasure of these effects can be erased through a change in behaviour and mitigation. The efforts include the implementation of national heat and cold alert systems, along with enhancements in housing such as the adoption of energy-efficient measures and the fortification of flood defenses.

Professor Oliver says that in the UK many of the expected adverse impacts on health are possibly avoidable through mitigation measures, while others are avoidable if the necessary adaptation measures are introduced. Therefore the evidence in this report must be utilized to shape policy and drive action.

The report also details measures that are required to address the forthcoming damage. Measures in the report encompass the use of solar energy, energy-efficient lighting and passive or low-carbon heating and cooling systems.

According to the report, rising temperatures and an ageing population will result in an escalation of deaths and various health impacts due to extreme heat. It is projected that under a high-warming scenario without adaptation, up to 10,000 deaths per year could occur due to extreme heat by the 2050s.

The global objective of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius is anticipated to be surpassed within the next five to ten years, with current projections indicating a trajectory towards a 2.7-degree Celsius rise in temperature.

In the worst-case high-emissions scenario outlined by the UKHSA, cold-related deaths are predicted to escalate temporarily due to an aging and expanding population. However, these deaths are expected to decline by the mid-century, as stated in the report. Simultaneously, deaths from moderate cold are projected to peak before diminishing by the 2070s.

England witnessed over 4,500 fatalities in 2022 due to high temperatures, marking the highest recorded figure. Among these, more than 2,800 excess deaths occurred among individuals aged 65 and over during the heatwave of that year. Notably, the days of July 19th and 20th recorded a sudden surge in deaths, with figures reaching 638 and 496, respectively, as temperatures rose above 40 degrees Celsius for the first time on record.

The report emphasizes that the adverse health effects of climate change will disproportionately impact already vulnerable and disadvantaged communities, potentially widening health disparities further. It highlights that an aging population in the UK will significantly contribute to the country’s climate vulnerability concerning health in the upcoming decades. Moreover, climate-related health risks will align with existing health and inequality gradients.

Dr. Lea Berrang Ford, head of the Centre for Climate and Health Security at UKHSA, emphasized the unequal distribution of impacts across individuals and communities. She highlighted the emergence of risks related to vector-borne diseases in the southern parts of the country due to the introduction of these risks from Europe. Additionally, she pointed out that the impact of climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, particularly for communities and individuals lacking access to cooling technologies, centers, and adaptation opportunities.

The report also warns of an increased risk of severe flooding across the UK under a high-emissions scenario, primarily impacting mental health. Those affected by flooding face higher risks of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder.

A government spokesperson emphasized the UK’s proactive measures in addressing climate change, emphasizing their leading role in emissions reduction and the commitment to developing climate-resilient health systems. They mentioned collaborative efforts with the health and social care system to enhance responses to climate change and extreme weather events.