NFL’s 12 biggest surprises of 2023 season, led by Baker over Brady: Sando’s Pick Six

Cover 7 | Monday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Monday, Mike Sando breaks down the six most impactful takeaways from the week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed quarterback Baker Mayfield to a one-year deal worth $4 million. The sporting public laughed. The division-rival New Orleans Saints signed Derek Carr for $37.5 million per year, about 9.4 times as much. The sporting public applauded.

The joke was on anyone who fell for the Vegas preseason win totals that flowed from those two decisions: 6.5 wins for Tampa Bay, 9.5 for New Orleans.

The Buccaneers are collecting on a bigger bet, wagering not only that Mayfield would provide greater value than Carr, but that he would outperform the 2022 version of Tom Brady as well. Mayfield has delivered on both fronts for the NFC South-leading Buccaneers, heading my list of the 12 biggest surprises in this 2023 NFL season.

The Pick Six column begins there and covers:

• Mayfield and NFL’s top surprises
• Cowboys road record mythology
• Preview: Joe Barry vs. Nick Mullens
• What’s next after Lions’ next step?
• How a franchise tolerates mediocrity
• Two-minute drill: How Rams got Nacua

1. Surprise, surprise: My 12 biggest during this 2023 season.

• Surprise No. 1: Baker Mayfield represents a statistical upgrade from Tom Brady as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback.

The case for Mayfield as a viable short-term replacement for Brady required an argument the Buccaneers were never going to make publicly. The argument suggested Brady had declined to such a degree during the 2022 season that he was basically a high-processing Tier 3 quarterback. Under that line of thinking, the drop from Brady to Mayfield might be negligible in a best-case scenario, if Mayfield could regain his career footing.

The Brady component is interesting. While Brady’s retirement during the offseason kept him from appearing in 2023 Quarterback Tiers, I did collect votes for Brady from 50 coaches and executives, in case he continued playing.

Seven of the 50 voters placed Brady in Tier 3, which is where a dozen voters had Mayfield. The Buccaneers bet on that overlap and won.

The table below compares the production through 15 games for Brady last season and Mayfield — playing with mostly the same weapons — this season. Brady threw far more passes than Mayfield has thrown. The Buccaneers trailed more last season, and Brady had come to resemble a latter-day Ben Roethlisberger: throwing short, quick passes before pressure could arrive, without the ability to escape trouble.

The projection for Mayfield was simply that he could reach previous performance peaks if healthier than he was in his final season with Cleveland (2021) and if the situation around him improved from what it was in Carolina last season. I questioned whether Mayfield would succeed on the thinking the past few years might have left scars, and because the Buccaneers were entrusting him to a first-time offensive coordinator (Dave Canales). Those questions have now been answered in the affirmative.

The result has been a return to the form Mayfield showed with the Browns in 2020, his last healthy season there. Mayfield is who we thought he was three years ago. His current numbers are nearly indistinguishable from what they were in 2020.

Canales, who served as Geno Smith’s position coach in Seattle last season, can now claim a role in two of the NFL’s most remarkable recent quarterback revivals. The Smith-Mayfield comps line up so well, they could warrant their own table. Through 15 games last season, Smith had 27 touchdowns, nine interceptions and 76 completions gaining more than 15 yards. Mayfield is at 26, eight and 78.

Smith parlayed his success into a three-year, $75 million deal that gave Seattle flexibility from year to year. Ian Rapoport’s report suggesting Mayfield and the Bucs have mutual interest in an extension coincided with news that the Buccaneers’ owners had sold a one-quarter share of Manchester United for more than $1 billion. They shouldn’t need quite that much to keep Mayfield in the fold.

•Surprise No. 2: Los Angeles Rams field a top-five offense with Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams combining to average 207 scrimmage yards per game.

We knew a healthy Matthew Stafford and a rejuvenated Sean McVay could make the Rams competitive. We did not think the Rams could provide the pass protection and running game to keep Stafford productive over a full season. We had no idea Nacua and Williams would average about as many combined scrimmage yards per game as 2018 Super Bowl Rams Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley averaged (210).

•Surprise No. 3: The Kansas City Chiefs field a top-10 defense and still have their worst record through 15 games during the Patrick Mahomes era.

The great championship-winning quarterbacks of the past half-century — Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman and Tom Brady among them — had excellent defenses on their side. Bradshaw won four Super Bowls with help from the “Steel Curtain” defenses of the 1970s. Montana’s 49ers led the league in scoring defense during the 1980s. Aikman’s Cowboys had Jimmy Johnson’s spin on the 4-3. Brady had Bill Belichick’s elite defensive scheming.

Mahomes separated himself by winning Super Bowls without top defenses. His 2022 Chiefs won it all while ranking 29th in combined EPA on defense and special teams. If the Chiefs could ever build a top-10 defense for Mahomes, they might coast to championships, right?

The Chiefs still might win it all, but their 10-5 record is their worst to this point in a season since Mahomes became their starter, despite Kansas City setting Mahomes-era bests for defensive EPA per play (sixth) and combined EPA on defense/special teams (eighth). The Chiefs are running out of time to get their wide receivers going.

•Surprise No. 4: The New York Giants and New York Jets collect nine of their 11 combined victories with Zach Wilson (four), Tommy DeVito (three), Trevor Siemian (one) and Tyrod Taylor (one) as their starting quarterbacks.

The Jets signed Aaron Rodgers and the Giants re-signed Daniel Jones in moves that both teams celebrated in the offseason. Rodgers lasted four snaps before suffering a torn Achilles tendon. Jones started five games, missed three, started one and suffered a torn ACL.

Just so there’s no confusion over how the games were won: The seven combined victories with Wilson and DeVito in the lineup produced minus-64.0 EPA on offense, compared to 124.0 EPA on defense/special teams. These were quarterback wins in name only.

•Surprise No. 5: The Philadelphia Eagles drop from sixth to 30th in defensive EPA per play after being almost universally lauded for their roster construction.

Adding first-round picks Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith to the front seven, then supplementing the secondary by acquiring veteran safety Kevin Byard at the trade deadline, fed familiar narratives casting Philadelphia as a team that is always one step ahead in personnel acquisition. The defense has too frequently been one step behind.

Some regression could have been anticipated. Regression to the point where the defense was helpless trying to stop Drew Lock from driving 92 yards for the winning touchdown was not among the considerations.

“Being old and slower on defense has been a problem for them,” an exec from an opposing NFC team said.

•Surprise No. 6: The Saints struggle to keep pace in the NFC South despite ranking fifth in combined EPA on defense and special teams.

Carr completing 27 of 40 passes for 319 yards with three touchdowns against the Rams on Thursday night felt like so many empty calories. Carr’s production for the season resembles the recent production of previous Saints starters Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton.

•Surprise No. 7: The Atlanta Falcons make the second-largest defensive performance jump from last season, but have little to show for it.

The Falcons’ investments on defense have helped the team improve by 9.9 EPA per game on that side of the ball. Only Cleveland (plus-11.2) has improved more. But with the Falcons losing ground by almost as much on offense (minus-6.1) and special teams (minus-2.6), the team has a 7-8 record and an 11.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, per The Athletic’s model.

Betting on quarterback Desmond Ridder was risky, but Ridder was replacing Marcus Mariota, not Michael Vick or Matt Ryan. How could the Falcons drop from third in rushing success rate last season to 23rd this season — after adding Bijan Robinson through the draft?

•Surprise No. 8: Mason Rudolph and Drew Lock help legacy coaches Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll save their seasons (if not their jobs) with rousing prime-time victories.

Lock’s 92-yard touchdown drive ended a four-game losing streak for Seattle, which has seen its playoff chances improve to 67.3 percent. Rudolph’s 86-yard and 66-yard touchdown passes to George Pickens against Cincinnati on Saturday kept alive the Steelers’ playoff chances — and Tomlin’s chances for extending his streak of non-losing seasons.

•Surprise No. 9: An AFC power with a top-five statistical offense fires its offensive coordinator during the season.

That was the Bills, who fired Ken Dorsey after Week 10, when the Bills ranked third in offensive EPA per play and second in success rate. Buffalo ranks sixth and 10th, respectively, since the firing but can point to a reborn running game against Dallas, improved usage of James Cook and a 4-1 record in five subsequent games in defending the decision.

•Surprise No. 10: The Cleveland Browns surge to a 10-5 record while starting four quarterbacks and losing a long list of key players, including Nick Chubb and both starting tackles.

The defense has improved by an NFL-best 11.2 EPA per game from last season, carrying the 28th-ranked offense past San Francisco, Baltimore and others. The offense held up its end spectacularly in a 36-22 victory at Houston on Sunday, an encouraging sign. This Cleveland offense producing a 265-yard receiver (Amari Cooper against the Texans) recalls the 2013 Brandon Weeden-led offense producing Josh Gordon’s 261-yard game.

•Surprise No. 11: Carolina and Houston realize polar-opposite results from quarterbacks selected 1-2 in the 2023 draft.

Some preferred Bryce Young to C.J. Stroud. Some preferred Stroud to Young. There was little reason to think Young and the Panthers would be historically bad on offense, while the Texans would have a winning record with Stroud in the lineup, while ranking among the league leaders in explosive plays.

•Surprise No. 12: Top quarterbacks miss more games than at any time in recent memory.

Michigan Law student Jake Grossman produced the chart below showing what percentage of games Tier 1 and Tier 1-2 quarterbacks have played each season since 2014, the year my Quarterback Tiers survey debuted. The rates are lower this season than in any other. With so many other established quarterbacks retiring in recent seasons, offensive production is hurting.

2. The Cowboys lost again on the road. Here’s what that does and does not mean.

Losing 22-20 at Miami left the Cowboys with an 0-4 record as an underdog this season. Does that mean Dallas has an underdog problem? Of course not. Underdogs tend to lose.

What if we mentioned that all four games were played on the road? Does that mean the Cowboys have a playing-on-the-road problem? It could, but I’m not yet buying what has become the most prominent Dallas narrative.

Dallas’ toughest opponents by record this season (excluding their games against the Cowboys) are the 49ers (10-3), Eagles (9-3) and Dolphins (10-4), with the Bills (8-6) close behind. The Cowboys faced all four on the road (they also hosted the Eagles, winning by 20). If the Cowboys have a playing-on-the-road-against-good-teams problem, there is no story.

Opponents have long considered the Cowboys to be front-runners, which could play into the issues away from home. Dallas has covered the point spread nine times, including seven times at home. The Cowboys failed to cover the spread six times, with five of those on the road.

“I think their identity is what it is,” an exec with NFC East experience said. “A front-running bunch, and when they start off hot, they ride it, and when they have to go blow for blow, I think there is … imploding there.”

3. The Packers engaging in a shootout against the Panthers’ historically bad offense was the pregame joke that really happened.

Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens, intercepted four times during a 30-24 defeat to Detroit on Sunday, has to like his chances for a bounce-back game in Week 17.

On the schedule is the Green Bay defense, which has allowed Tommy DeVito, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young and Kirk Cousins to post their season-best marks in EPA per pass play.

Before pushing Green Bay to the limit in a game the Packers won 33-30 with a last-minute field goal, Carolina had not finished any of Young’s 13 starts with positive EPA. The Panthers finished this game at plus-11.0, compared to minus-161.3 against everyone else.

A unit that has been just OK during coach Matt LaFleur’s tenure now ranks among the NFL’s worst, turning coordinator Joe Barry’s job status into weekly fodder for reporters covering the team. The defense ranks 25th in EPA per play this season and 23rd over Barry’s three-year tenure. Those rankings are down from 14th over LaFleur’s first two seasons, when the coordinator was Mike Pettine, a holdover from Mike McCarthy’s tenure as coach.

Will changing coordinators fix what ails this defense?

“You would say that,” an evaluator from a Packers opponent said, “but you (exercised the fifth-year option of) Darnell Savage, and he has not played well. You paid the corner (Jaire Alexander), and he has been out. I think there is a lot more to be desired from the back seven in terms of talent.”

Alexander returned against Carolina and made his most lasting impression with an unauthorized appearance at the pregame coin toss, where his use of imprecise language with referee Alex Kemp could have cost Green Bay from getting possession to start either half. Alexander seemed oblivious when asked about the situation after the game.

Asked about the defense, he dropped the “we just gotta play the call that’s called” line, which is usually a bad sign for the coordinator.

4. The Lions are an 11-win (and counting) division winner and will be measured against this new standard in the future, but not today.

The Lions secured a second consecutive winning record three weeks ago. By beating Minnesota on Sunday, they secured their first division title since 1993 and fourth since winning the 1957 NFL Championship. This season counts as progress no matter what happens from here.

The goal posts will move in the future as the Lions are compared against the NFL’s other playoff teams, instead of against themselves. That is progress.

The Lions’ defense looks like the key variable heading toward the playoffs. It has improved from 31st in EPA per play last season to 22nd this season. That was enough for Detroit to win the division. Will it be enough to make a playoff push? The Lions can worry about that in January. They’ve got a division title to celebrate in the meantime.

5. Some organizations tolerate mediocrity. Here’s what that looks like for the Los Angeles Chargers.

Eight NFL teams entered the 2023 season with general managers who had been on the job for at least 10 drafts. Lasting that long usually requires winning consistently, winning a Super Bowl or owning the team.

The five longest-tenured GMs with winning records — Bill Belichick, John Schneider, Mickey Loomis, Jerry Jones and Les Snead — all won Super Bowls. The three with losing records either won the Super Bowl (Jason Licht), owned the team (Mike Brown) or worked for the Chargers.

The Eagles’ Howie Roseman became GM in 2010, but with coaches Andy Reid and Chip Kelly exercising control at various points, I used 2016 as his start date in the role.

The Chargers stuck with GM Tom Telesco through three head-coaching hires despite an 84-92 record (.477) in the regular season, only two playoff victories and never advancing past the divisional round.

Staying the course that long in the absence of a meaningful payoff reflects a tolerance for being below average despite employing upper-tier quarterbacks the entire time (Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert).

Whether Telesco — who was fired last week along with head coach Brandon Staley — did a good, bad or mediocre job is secondary.

“Telesco drafted a Tier 1 quarterback, which everyone else tries to do, but almost never does,” an exec from another team said. “It is probably 90 percent failure rate for finding Tier 1 (quarterbacks) in the first round. Telesco got that done at least.”

6. Two-minute drill: Puka Nacua’s strange path to the Rams ran through the Chargers.

The Rams turned defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day into their leading receiver for 2023 with an assist from the cross-town Chargers. A quick timeline:

• March 16, 2022: Rams let Joseph-Day become unrestricted free agent
• March 16, 2022: Chargers sign Joseph-Day to three-year, $24 million deal
• March 9, 2023: NFL awards 2023 compensatory fifth-round pick to Rams
• April 29, 2023: Rams use said comp pick to select Nacua
• Sept. 10, 2023: Nacua becomes instant star with 119 yards in debut
• Dec. 2023: Chargers release Joseph-Day

No one could have foreseen such a wild turn of events.

Pro Football Focus celebrated the Chargers’ signing of Joseph-Day by naming him a potential “secret superstar” for their run defense.

The Athletic’s draft-day coverage called Nacua someone who has “a fighting chance” to earn a roster spot.

So it goes.

• Bills threading needle: The Buffalo Bills have saved their season with a three-game winning streak against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers. It has been a remarkable threading of the needle more than a sudden shift to consistently elite performance.

At Kansas City, the Bills needed the most expensive offensive offside call in NFL history to avoid what would have been a tortuous defeat (the NFL levied $150,000 in fines against the Chiefs’ Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes for criticizing the call).

On Saturday, the Bills pulled out a 24-22 victory over a Chargers team led by interim coach Giff Smith and backup quarterback Easton Stick. Buffalo was 1-6 previously under coach Sean McDermott when finishing minus-3 in turnover differential. The Bills made it 2-6 by the slimmest of margins, restoring their playoff hopes.

• MVP debate about to take off: Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens visiting Brock Purdy’s San Francisco 49ers — or are those Christian McCaffrey’s 49ers? — on Monday night is sure to fuel what has been a raging MVP debate.

No one I know thinks Purdy is the NFL’s best quarterback. Does that disqualify him from the MVP discussion? Not in my book, but that is a mental hurdle many seem to have a hard time clearing. Dak Prescott’s case hasn’t gained any traction of late. The final two weeks of the season could tip the discussion.

(Photo: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)

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