Human-caused climate change has been shrinking the odds of seeing a white Christmas across the contiguous United States, and that trend seems set to continue this year because of abnormally warm temperatures expected across much of the nation, connected at least in part to El Niño. But while the chances of a white Christmas are low in most major cities, there are still some places that could be snowy leading up to or on Christmas Day.
For those in search of a white Christmas, here’s where the odds are best and worst this year …
Where a white Christmas is most likely
Those most likely regions to see a white Christmas are mainly in the western U.S. mountains, parts of the northern and perhaps central Plains, and the Northeast U.S. mountains and areas downwind of the Great Lakes.
While portions of the Mountain West already have more than a foot of snow on the ground, new accumulation the next several days should focus on the Sierra Nevada of California, the Four Corners region, western and northern New York, northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire.
Snowfall the day before Christmas looks to favor the Rockies and into the central high Plains. Cheyenne, Wyo., and Denver seem primed to pick up a coating to a few inches.
If you’re looking for falling snowflakes on Christmas Day itself, the best bet is the Cascades through western Washington and western Oregon, or in a zone from the Dakotas through western Nebraska, western Kansas and into the southern high plains.
If you’re looking to make — or escape — a white Christmas, there’s still time. Here are your best bets.
Albuquerque: A little snow could fall around the holiday, but the chance of one inch on the ground Christmas Day is only about 5 to 10 percent, with a better chance (around 30 percent) in the higher elevations outside the city. The foothills of the city have about a 20 percent historical chance.
Buffalo: After the potential for about an inch of snow Tuesday, it doesn’t look promising for any more as temperatures warm into the weekend and Christmas Day. The chance of one inch of snow on the ground Christmas Day is only about 10 percent, compared with a 53 percent chance historically.
Burlington, Vt.: A little snow is possible this weekend. The chance of one inch of snow on the ground Christmas Day is about 20 to 30 percent, compared to a 42 percent chance historically.
Cleveland: So far, it’s just a chance of snow showers Friday night. Odds of one inch on the ground Christmas Day are about 5 percent, compared with a 40 percent chance historically.
Denver: Some snow is likely this weekend into Christmas Day, perhaps several inches. The chance of one inch on the ground Christmas Day is about 50 percent, compared with a 34 percent chance historically.
Lake Tahoe, Calif.: One of the better places to be if in search of a white Christmas. The ski slopes are covered and snow levels are around 7,500 feet. With some fresh snow possible, a chance of one inch on the ground Christmas Day is greater than 80 percent, compared with an 83 percent chance historically.
Marquette, Mich.: Shower chances trend higher Sunday into Christmas Day, but are probably in the form of rain as highs reach the 40s. The chance of one inch of snow on the ground Christmas Day is about 20 to 30 percent, compared with an 82 to 95 percent chance historically, depending on elevation.
Minneapolis: Probably no snow for you, with highs well into the 40s this weekend into early next week. The chance of one inch of snow on the ground Christmas Day is less than 10 percent, compared with a 74 percent chance historically.
Rapid City, S.D.: Colder weather arrives this weekend. With some snow likely Sunday into Christmas Day, the odds of one inch of snow on the ground Christmas Day are about 50 percent, compared with a 32 percent chance historically.
Snowshoe, W.Va.: After a half-foot Monday and Monday night, plenty of recent snow should still be on the ground Christmas Day despite not much more in the forecast and rising temperatures. The chance of one inch on the ground Christmas Day is about 70 percent, compared with a 60 percent chance historically.
Spokane, Wash.: A cooldown this weekend could bring a little snow. The chance of one inch on the ground Christmas Day is about 20 to 30 percent, compared with a 48 percent chance historically.
Near-record low snow cover and pervasive warmth
Following the latest big rainstorm on the East Coast, snow cover is scarce across the Lower 48. It’s likely to stay that way as temperatures across a large portion of the central United States are forecast to soar to as much as 15 to 30 degrees above normal later this week into early next week. The unusual warmth is consistent with what’s expected during an El Niño event in December.
The historical average snow cover on this date is 36.8 percent of the continental United States. So, the current 16.9 percent is less than half of normal for the week before Christmas. Last year snow cover was 43.6 percent at this time.
The lowest snow cover on this date in modern record, going back to 2003, was 14.5 percent in 2004, followed by 16.4 percent in 2006. Both of those years, however, had a higher average snow cover than this year’s 0.9 inches.