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An update on Wander Franco, a look at a(nother) Japanese free-agent pitcher, we break down the Chris Sale trade and catch you up on what you might have missed over the holidays. I’m Levi Weaver here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup.
Wander Franco detained
Since we last spoke, there have been some developments in Franco’s case in the Dominican Republic. Namely, he has been detained because he failed to show up to a summons last week.
A quick catch-up: The allegations against Franco — that he engaged in inappropriate actions with underage girls — first surfaced on Aug. 13. He was initially placed on MLB’s restricted list, then later (Aug. 22) was placed on administrative leave.
Early last week, according to the Associated Press, police and prosecutors visited two of Franco’s properties, but he was not there. The 22-year-old was ordered to meet with the authorities and did not show up. On Monday (after reportedly changing his legal representation), Franco met with prosecutors and was detained after the meeting.
On Wednesday, prosecutors accused Franco of commercial sexual exploitation of a minor and money laundering. The minor’s mother faces the same charges.
Other reports, like this one from a Spanish-language local newspaper, indicate the mother has also been detained.
The next step: Franco is scheduled to appear before a judge tomorrow, who will decide whether to allow him to be released on an $86,000 bond. The prosecution also wants the judge to bar him from leaving the country and place him under house arrest.
Ken’s Notebook: High price for Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga is not nearly as accomplished a pitcher as Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But the buzz among agents and executives on Wednesday was that the Japanese free-agent left-hander is poised to receive a contract of at least $100 million.
The Imanaga negotiations are heading toward a conclusion, if for no other reason than the calendar. The pitcher’s 45-day posting window expires on Jan. 11. If he is not signed by then, he will return to his Japanese team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars.
No one in the industry expects such an outcome.
Imanaga, 30, ranked anywhere from No. 11 to No. 22 in the free-agent rankings by five members of The Athletic’s staff — Jim Bowden, Tim Britton, Aaron Gleeman, Keith Law and Eno Sarris. Three teams in need of starters — the Mets, Yankees and Orioles — are not expected to be involved in the bidding. But the Red Sox, Giants and other teams are believed to be in the mix.
As Britton and Gleeman wrote, “Imanaga was not quite as dominant in 2023 as he had been in 2022; nevertheless, over the past three seasons his ERA in (the Japanese majors) has been about 38 percent better than the league average there. That’s in line with pitchers like Hiroki Kuroda and Hisashi Iwakuma before they signed in the majors.”
Kuroda was quite successful in his seven major-league seasons, producing an adjusted ERA 15 percent above league average. Iwakuma, too, performed well, compiling an adjusted ERA 18 percent above league average in his first four seasons, 2 percent below in his final two.
A more recent comp for Imanaga, at least among Japanese pitchers, would be Mets righty Kodai Senga, who signed a five-year, $75 million free-agent contract last offseason. Senga, 30, worked 166 1/3 innings in his first major-league campaign and ranked fifth in the league with a 2.98 ERA. His adjusted mark was 42 percent above league average.
Any comparison between the two, however, goes only so far. Senga is a 6-foot-1, 202-pound righty, Imanaga a 5-10, 176-pound lefty. One executive, speaking on condition of anonymity because the collective-bargaining agreement prohibits club officials from publicly commenting on free agents, says he does not believe Imanaga’s stuff will translate as well as Senga’s. The exec, however, believes Imanaga will be a competent member of a rotation, with the upside of a No. 3 starter.
The team that signs Imanaga will be required to pay a posting fee to Yokohama on 20 percent of the first $25 million, 17.5 percent of the next $25 million and 15 percent of anything over $50 million. A contract of $100 million would result in a fee of $16.875 million. Yamamoto’s $325 million deal with the Dodgers required an additional payment of $50.625 million.
The prices for all free-agent starting pitchers remain high; Frankie Montas received a one-year, $16 million contract from the Reds after pitching just 1 1/3 innings last season. Imanaga figures to be no different. His guarantee could double what The Athletic’s Britton predicted he would get in a four-year deal — $52 million.
Chris Sale traded to Braves, signs extension
It wasn’t exactly the blockbuster of Dec. 2016, when Sale’s Sox color changed from White to Red in exchange for four players (including Michael Kopech and Yoán Moncada), but it’s still a big deal. The Braves acquired the left-hander on Saturday in exchange for infielder Vaughn Grissom. News broke this morning that Sale has signed an extension: two years and $38 million, with a club option for $18 million in 2026.
Sale’s Boston tenure started strong — he pitched a league-leading 214 1/3 innings in 2017, then the Red Sox won the World Series in 2018. The following spring, he signed a six-year, $145 million contract extension.
That extension did not prove to be the wisest investment. The last four seasons were marked by moments of brilliance strewn sporadically across four years of pain. From 2020 (a season lost to Tommy John recovery) through 2022, injuries limited Sale to 48 1/3 innings.
Last year, he overcame a stress reaction in his left shoulder to pitch 102 2/3 effective innings, striking out 125 and walking 29. That’s a pretty good (if extremely risky) addition for a Braves rotation that struggled to stay five deep last season. Initially, it was a one-year gambit: Boston also sent $17 million to Atlanta, and since another $10 million had been deferred until 2039, Sale would only cost the Braves $500,000 this year — the final year of his contract.
But with the extension, the Braves are increasing both the potential risk and reward. If Sale is anything like the pitcher he was from 2012-2018 — an All-Star each year — it will be a steal. If his body can’t hold up, it could be absolutely disastrous.
As for the return, Grissom was Atlanta’s top prospect not long ago but found himself blocked at every position (including outfield). He has a career line of .287/.339/.407 (.746 OPS) in 236 big-league plate appearances (.320/.407/.477 (.884) in 1,474 minor-league PAs).
For Boston, it stings to lose Sale when they were expected to add, but Grissom is a nice return, shoring up an infield that saw a rotating cast of characterslast year (but should benefit from a fully healthy Trevor Story in 2024). Meanwhile, Lucas Giolito, who signed a two-year deal worth $38.5 million, should fill Sale’s spot in the rotation.
Who are the remaining free agents?
It’s Jan. 4. Maybe you traveled for the holidays or had family obligations, or maybe you went a little too hard at Christmas and New Year’s parties. Either way, your baseball radar was completely tuned out for a bit, and you need to catch up on which free agents are still out there and which ones have signed. We got you.
First, our Top 40 free agents tracker is still up and running. At time of writing, 17 of those players have signed (including the top three: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto). As for the rest, Chad Jennings has put together a fun little All-Free-Agent team to give you some idea of what’s left on the market.
According to our tracker (and Jennings’ hypothetical team), the top three players remaining are:
• Cody Bellinger (OF, 1B) — Bellinger had a huge resurgence last season with the Cubs, who are still in the running to bring him back. Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 (.881 OPS) with 26 home runs after bombing out with the Dodgers via three straight seasons with a sub-.800 OPS. The year before that, he was the NL MVP, though.
• Blake Snell (LHP) — The reigning NL Cy Young winner, Snell posted a 2.25 ERA with 234 strikeouts in 180 innings for the Padres last year, leading the league with just 5.8 hits per nine innings. He also allowed a league-leading 99 walks (which shouldn’t be enough to disqualify him from a big payday).
• Jordan Montgomery (LHP) — traded from St. Louis to Texas at the deadline, Montgomery went on to be an absolute workhorse in the Rangers’ World Series run, posting a 2.90 ERA in six games (five starts), including two of the team’s four wins in the ALCS against the Astros. He’s not as flashy as Snell, but he’s a solid reliable left-handed starter.
Handshakes and High Fives
My goodness, this story by Matt Gelb about Charlie Manuel’s recovery from a stroke is must-read stuff.
Look, were we not going to jump on the Taylor Swift / Travis Kelce phenomenon? Come on. How about a read on his younger days playing baseball? No, no. It’s actually pretty legit. Here’s a pull quote: “He looked like Josh Hamilton.”
The Blue Jays have pivoted, somewhat, turning to “incremental” additions after missing out on Shohei Ohtani. Meanwhile, the Padres have added Korean reliever Woo-Suk Go.
Former Yankees star Greg Bird is rediscovering himself, playing in Australia.
And lastly, the final two installments of Jayson Stark’s five-part review of 2023 are here. First, the Strange But True reader favorites, followed by the most bizarre moments afforded us by the new rule changes.
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(Top photo: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)
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