The Athletic has live coverage of Texas vs. Oklahoma in Week 6 of college football action.
Ari Wasserman, David Ubben and Seth Emerson previewed the biggest games of Week 6 of the college football season on the Until Saturday podcast. The trio discussed the games and made picks against the spread for Texas vs. Oklahoma, Kentucky at Georgia, Alabama at Texas A&M and more.
Below is an edited, abridged version of their discussion on several Week 6 games. The full episode includes discussion on Washington State at UCLA (-3.5), Michigan (-19.5) at Minnesota, LSU (-6) at Missouri, Notre Dame (-6.5) at Louisville and more.
You can listen to the full episode here.
Kentucky at Georgia (-14.5)
Emerson: Georgia, let’s go back to last year. They got a scare at Missouri. It woke them up and they didn’t have another down to the wire game until the playoffs against the one team probably capable of giving them that down to the wire game. Ohio State. This year you wondered if the South Carolina game would be the wake up. Then it had to do it even more and had to actually go down to the wire last week against Auburn.
So, here’s what I’m wondering about this team right now. Does it need an actual loss to jar it into reaching its potential? This program has won 22 in a row. It keeps digging itself out of holes against weaker opponents. Is there a pervading sense within that program, or at least just enough people on that team that it’ll always be okay?
I’ve been on this beat continually since 2010, which means I’ve never seen Georgia lose to Kentucky. I’ve seen them lose to every other SEC team at some point, including Vanderbilt twice, with the exception of Texas A&M, which they’ve only played once since they got in the league. But they always beat Kentucky and the reason lately is because, honestly, they’re built similarly, but Georgia has more talent. It’s like the Spider-Man meme of the two Spider-Men pointing at each other, except one of them is larger and faster.
Emerson: Georgia, I think is 0-4-1 against the spread this year.
Ubben: Yes. Kentucky 4-0 (against FBS teams).
Emerson: There’s part of me that’s like, this is going to catch up to Georgia at some point. But the part of me that says if I’ve got to put a lot of money on this game, I’d take Georgia to cover.
Wasserman: The thing that I’m wondering for real here is are these grabass sleepwalking games or are these symptoms to an ailment that actually exists within the program or the offense that is going to cause them to lose? Not because they don’t care or not because they’re not locked in, but because maybe they’re not good enough this year to go undefeated. Is that a real thought to you or is that just when they wake up, they’re going to go back to Death Star mode?
Emerson: It could definitely be that, Ari. And the bigger worry about that is the defense. The offense was always going to take a slight step back because you have a new quarterback, new coordinator, new left tackle. Both tackles from last year are gone and the one that had some experience is hurt right now, but they’ve actually been what you kind of would expect on offense. Carson Beck is getting better by the game.
But Georgia’s defense has to get better. The formula for this Georgia team to three-peat was great defense, very good offense. And I thought the offense would get to very good or could get to very good and honestly their offense has probably been better than the defense. And the defense also has not been good at forcing turnovers.
Ubben: I think people have gotten used to the idea that Georgia should just dominate everybody. I think there is a realization, especially with all the turnover, that that’s more the exception than the rule.
Ubben: For me, I like Kentucky to cover here. I think Devin Leary gives you enough balance. It feels like a reputation line here of like people that have not been paying attention to what Georgia has actually done. And Kentucky is the best team they’ve played, I would say by a decent margin. I don’t think it’s a sleepwalking thing. I think it’s just a very good team that is just not going to blow teams away despite how talented they are.
Wasserman: The fact that this game is in Georgia. The fact that they’ve slept walked through two games already. Kentucky is undefeated. I’m not going to give in to the temptation this time. I’m just going to roll with the team that I think is better. And if Kentucky somehow finds a way to win this game or cover this game, then we’ll have further discussion about whether or not Georgia’s flawed.
Texas (-6.5) vs. Oklahoma
Ubben: I think this will be lower scoring than people expect. Two best teams in the Big 12 in stop rates. Oklahoma against competent defenses, and I use that term liberally. We’re talking about SMU and Cincinnati here. They have not looked great. They have not passed 30 points. Texas more than competent defensively. I suspect they can slow Texas down a little bit.
There is a chance here, Ari, that we get another like 37-13, 37-17 Texas beatdown. But I think Dillon Gabriel, having him there, I think he can make enough plays, makes enough plays down the field. The defense has been quietly a lot better than people realize. This gets a little muddy, not as fun as some of the other Red River games we’ve seen. I think Texas wins it, but OU keeps it close.
Emerson: I don’t want to over credit Oklahoma for being better than expected and I don’t want to under credit Texas for what it’s done because it’s Texas and we basically have to see them hoisting the national championship trophy before we stop making “Texas is back” references in a derisive manner. I’m not saying the Horns won’t win the national title or will, but just saying that based on what they’ve done, that Alabama game sticks out to me. I guess I wouldn’t be shocked if Oklahoma does win because we don’t have enough data at this point to say whether or not they’re for real or not. But my hard-earned money would go on Texas covering.
Wasserman: OK, I got to do it, guys. I have been the driver of the Texas bus since before the season started. And I am very aware that I have probably a personal staked interest in Texas winning.
Ubben: Ari, there’s room in the ditch with me on the LSU bus if you want to join us. It’s fine. Come on over.
Wasserman: I’ve already put a water bottle down there. Just wait for me. But I don’t think if Texas loses this game I’m in that ditch. I think there’s a high likelihood that they’re playing again in Dallas at the end of the year.
Ubben: It’s looking that way.
Wasserman: I think we are significantly undervaluing Oklahoma as a football team because of our notions of what happened a year ago. And what happened a year ago in that game was Oklahoma didn’t have a frickin’ quarterback. They literally couldn’t play good run offense. So of course that was going to happen.
I think that this is going to be a lower scoring game the way that you mentioned it would. Dave, I agree with that. I would hit the under in this game (60.5). But I also think I would take the points. I’m not willing to go out there and say that Oklahoma is going to win, but this is going to be a close game.
Alabama (-2.5) at Texas A&M
Wasserman: I live in Texas. Aggies are pumped.
Ubben: They should be. I’m concerned that we may have an Alabama that has figured itself out and is getting ready for a run. I think that world exists, but this is the best team on both lines I think that Alabama has played yet.
Wasserman: We thought this too for the Miami game. Did they fix it?
Ubben: Kyle is going to be rocking, Ari, and that’s the toughest environment yet for Jalen Milroe, who hasn’t really played like a super tough road game. I think Aggies win this outright.
The Aggies, I’m not convinced that they’re world beaters but at the end of the day, Alabama going on the road to Kyle, which loves beating Alabama. They might be second to Texas now as the only team that A&M loves beating more.
Wasserman: The thing that’s interesting about this game here is that no matter what happens there’s a very compelling column attached to it. If Texas A&M wins the game, then Alabama is officially out. If Texas A&M loses this game, then the (junk) starts again. So I’m excited to watch. I think A&M is going to win the game outright, too. I think that quarterback play in combination with below average line play when playing the deepest and best defensive line they’ve probably faced all year, the only one that they’ve played that’s kind of similar is Texas, and I don’t think that is as good as the Aggies’. Give me the points.
Emerson: I had a lot of back and forth why to pick either team. And then I realized that unless you’re really, really sure, you shouldn’t pick against Nick Saban. So I’m going with Alabama.
Locks of the Week
Ubben: Mizzou +6 vs. LSU. Mizzou may go win this outright. I think LSU going on the road, Faurot Field is not Kyle Field, but they can get up for some games. When that place gets going, it can get going. I think Mizzou fans, who had modest expectations coming into the year, are starting to smell it a little bit. This is a game that you can announce yourself somebody that should be taken seriously.
Emerson: North Carolina -8.5 vs. Syracuse. It’s nice that Syracuse is 4-1, but it hasn’t really beaten anybody close to North Carolina’s level. Syracuse just lost by 17 at home to Clemson. The number seems really low.
Wasserman: Texas Tech -1.5 at Baylor. I think Texas Tech is better than it has performed. I just think that Baylor is off this year. Texas Tech has a good team.
(Photo of Brock Bowers: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
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