The long-anticipated US recession may still be lurking out there, somewhere. But for now, the economy is barreling toward 2024 in better shape than even optimists had expected only six months ago. Growth in the third quarter blew past expectations, jobs remain plentiful, consumers are still spending, and house prices have held firm. Signals from the Federal Reserve that it may have ended its aggressive cycle of interest rate hikes have further buoyed hopes for a soft landing.
Wall Street economists are leaning on a timeless fairytale to sum up the current outlook: not too hot and not too cold. “I feel like I am in the middle of a Goldilocks story,” wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC in a recent note. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli, also name-checked the children’s classic in a report, saying, “For now it looks like Goldilocks.” Dario Perkins, managing director at TS Lombard, posted on X, formerly Twitter, an animation of the tiny trespasser slurping her porridge.