Wall Street is hanging around its record highs Friday and on track to close out its longest weekly winning streak in six years.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 was 0.2% lower in early trading and within 1.8% of its all-time high set early last year. It’s still heading for a seventh straight winning week.
The Dow Jones industrial average, which shows the health of a smaller slice of the U.S. stock market, was down 58 points, or 0.2%, a day after setting a record for the second straight time. The Nasdaq composite was 0.3% higher, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern.
The company behind Olive Garden, Ruth’s Chris Steak House and other restaurant chains sank 3.9% despite reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Darden Restaurants gave a forecast for revenue for its full fiscal year that fell short of analysts’ forecasts.
A 2.9% gain for Costco helped offset that weakness. It rose after reporting stronger results for the latest quarter than analysts expected and saying it will send $6.7 billion in cash to its shareholders through a special $15 dividend.
Stocks overall have bolted higher this week after the Federal Reserve seemingly gave a nod toward the hopes that have sent Wall Street screaming higher since autumn. Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a press conference on Wednesday did not forcefully push back on traders’ expectations that inflation has cooled enough for the central bank to not only halt its market-hurting hikes to interest rates but also to consider cutting rates.
The S&P 500 has jumped roughly 15% since late October on rising hopes for just such a shift. Lower rates not only give a boost to prices for all kinds of investments, they also relax the pressure on the economy and the financial system.
Hopes for several cuts to rates from the Fed in 2024 have sent Treasury yields tumbling in the bond market, which in turn releases pressure on the stock market.
The 10-year yield stabilized on Friday and rose to 3.93% from 3.92% late Thursday. But it’s still well below its level above 5% reached in October, which was its highest since 2007.
With inflation down from its peaks, Bank of America is forecasting 152 rate cuts from central banks around the world in 2024. That would be the first year since 2020 that cuts have outpaced hikes.
Of course, some more cautious investors say markets may have gotten ahead of themselves in their ebullience. The big moves seem to be predicated on the Federal Reserve pulling off what was considered a nearly impossible task not long ago.
The Fed’s goal has been to slow the economy and grind down prices for investments enough through high interest rates to get high inflation under control. It then has to loosen the brakes at the exact right time. If it waits too long, the economy could fall into a painful recession. If it moves too early, inflation could reaccelerate and add misery for everyone.
That’s a lot of ifs. Plus, many critics say the number of rate cuts that traders are expecting in 2024 doesn’t seem likely unless the U.S. economy falls into a recession.
With the huge rallies so far, “markets all-in on infallible Fed,” strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a BofA Global Research report.
In stock markets abroad, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 2.4%, with property developers jumping after some Chinese cities eased buying restrictions. The Hong Kong market has been one of the world’s worst this year, when most markets have rallied strongly, amid worries about property developers and the overall health of the Chinese economy.
AP writer Elaine Kurtenbach contributed to this report.