This year has posed an unusual array of challenges for investors, and more could be in store. The major stock market indexes are still up in 2023, powered by a narrow slice of technology stocks, but have been losing ground rapidly. Bond yields have risen sharply, topping 5% on some government debt. The economic outlook is uncertain, the U.S. government has been in turmoil, and wars and conflict are spreading across the globe.
“Rarely have I seen such disarray in the world, with financial markets, politically, and otherwise,” says William Priest, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer at Epoch Investment Partners in New York, and a respondent to our fall 2023 Big Money poll.
This fall, there is no predominant mood among the professional money managers surveyed by Barron’s. Some 38% of Big Money respondents say they are bullish about the prospects for equities in the next 12 months. That compares with 38% in the neutral camp, and 24% who call themselves bears.
The bulls see a 14% rise for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2024, and a 12% gain by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The bears forecast losses of 3% for the S&P 500 and 2% for the Dow.
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