I’ll be honest and admit I have no idea what’s going to happen with the remaining two teams from the old Pac-12 — Oregon State and Washington State.
I say that because I’ve asked people — both on and off the record — who would have more insight than me on the topic and even they don’t know.
I assume Oregon State and Washington State have a long-term plan they’re trying to execute, but even that might be giving too much credit to the Beavers and Cougars.
Nobody can predict the future of college athletics conference realignment. Eighteen months ago, nobody would have guessed USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington would go to the Big Ten; Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado would go to the Big 12; and Cal and Stanford would go to the AAC, the latter of those three moves the most ridiculous. If people in power planned this out with foresight, the current situation would not have been the final result.
Still, Wednesday’s news of Oregon State and Washington State being poised to join the West Coast Conference in all non-football and non-baseball sports doesn’t seem good for Nevada. I was on the record earlier this week being against the Mountain West adding the Pac-2 in men’s basketball for 2024-25 unless it came with a long-term binding agreement (full explainer in this week’s Monday Mailbag).
The explanation for why Oregon State and Washington State will join the WCC instead of the MW, per CBS’ Matt Norlander, who broke the news, is “logistical and ongoing legal concerns have combined to make a move in basketball and non-revenue sports difficult at this time” for the MW. I don’t believe the “logistical” excuse. I do buy the “legal concerns” as the remaining Pac-12 schools continue to battle — and successfully so — the teams leaving the conference for full control of the tens of millions of money owed to the conference. My guess is the MW tired of Oregon State and Washington State not fully committing to the conference and told those schools, “Go find another league to play in.”
But here’s my concern for the MW overall and the Nevada Wolf Pack specifically: If Oregon State and Washington State were truly interested in joining the MW or doing a reverse merger where the MW dissolves and all of its members join the Cougars and Beavers under the Pac-12 umbrella, we would have seen more traction in that direction by now.
Yes, Oregon State and Washington State have a football scheduling agreement with the MW for 2024 that will bring $14 million into the conference’s coffers, but that was initially reported to be a two-year deal that included some long-term alliance or partnership. It ended up being a one-year deal, and while I don’t know the full contract details — I’m still waiting on Oregon State to fulfill my public-records request — it’s fair to assume Oregon State and Washington State were resistant to a long-term agreement, hence a modified one-year deal.
And if the Beavers and Cougars were keen on eventually joining the MW in one form or another, wouldn’t they have partnered, even in a temporary play, in all sports by now instead of using the WCC to stay afloat? It’s surely fair for Oregon State and Washington State to act in their best interest, whether that means buying time in hopes of eventually getting a Big 12 invitation (not happening); getting a better understanding of forthcoming revenue and legal liabilities before locking into a long-term agreement with the MW; or plotting a course to rebuild the Pac-12.
But if you’re a school like Nevada, the time elapsed since the last major move — Stanford and Cal getting an ACC invite almost four months ago — is concerning. The Wolf Pack’s biggest liability during this latest round of realignment is being left without a chair at the big-boy table, which means a spot in the MW as currently formed or a new-look Pac-12.
Nevada does not rank highly among the most attractive MW schools, a list headlined by San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force and Fresno State, in whichever order you like. And while the cards have fallen in the Wolf Pack’s favor thus far, that doesn’t mean they will continue to do so. To date, the MW has been united throughout the latest round of conference realignment, but that is more based on those schools having no other options.
Boise State has been pushing to get out of the league almost as long as it’s been in it. San Diego State gave notice — or did the Aztecs? — last year it was leaving the league before crawling back. Rumors about Air Force and Colorado State wanting out of the league have percolated for years. More clearly to the point: If I were Nevada, I’d trust the other MW schools as much as I trust a hungry Rottweiler not to bite my hand if I was holding a juicy piece of steak in front of his face.
So, what do I think will happen?
I can only put myself in the shoes of those who run Oregon State and Washington State. If I were them, I’d do everything I could to keep the Pac-12 alive and as strong as possible. The top alternative is to join the MW in all sports, and that’d mean a decrease from its $37 million in annual Pac-12 TV money to the $3.2 million annual TV money non-Boise State MW members get, not to mention a decrease in NCAA Tournament and College Football Playoff payments the Pac-12 enjoys. Moving from the old Pac-12 to the new MW would cost Oregon State and Washington State at least $35 million annually, even if the MW’s new TV deal would be moderately juiced with their inclusion.
If I’m Oregon State and Washington State, I’m doing everything possible to figure out if I can rebuild the Pac-12 without joining the MW, and that means crunching the numbers only those schools have to see how much it would take to buy the top six MW schools and top few American Athletic Conference schools to get back to double-digit members. The MW’s saving grace to this point is its prohibitive exit-fee costs not loyalty, the latter of which doesn’t exist in college sports.
Per the MW handbook, a member would owe the conference three times the average annual payout (about $17 million) if departing with at least one year’s notice and double that (about $34 million) with less than a year’s notice. Those buyouts approved by the league’s presidents in 2021 have saved the conference thus far. Will they continue to do so?
Oregon State and Washington State are likely doing the math on how much it will cost to buy five or six MW teams (I’d take San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV, Colorado State and Air Force) and three or four AAC schools (I’d take Tulane, Memphis, UTSA and Rice). Given the AAC buyout is $10 million with 27 months’ notice, Oregon and Washington State would be looking at around $125 million in buyout money to get back to 10 to 12 teams if it picks off the top of the MW and AAC. And with its WCC and MW alliances, the Pac-2 has already bought some time to get the lower price tag on those buyouts if it moves forward with that plan.
That $125 million is costly. Perhaps too costly given this new-look Pac-12 would be lucky to get $10 million per year per school after the old Pac-12 sans USC and UCLA reportedly topped out with a $20 million per school offer from Apple TV+ before falling apart. And that was with much stronger brands than a rebuilt Pac-12 would include. The Pac-2 also could try and sway threefourths of the MW to dissolve the conference and form the new Pac-12, leaving behind the low-end MW teams.
Nevada can only hope the financial math and behind-the-scenes dealings play in its favor. The Wolf Pack, as well as lower-tier MW schools like Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico and San Jose State, have been sitting in the backseat for this latest bumpy ride through conference realignment. So far, things have worked out. The train has stayed on the track. But there’s no guarantee it will continue to do so.
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
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