Hurricane Lee formed Wednesday afternoon far out in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said, and it is “likely to intensify into an extremely dangerous major hurricane by early Saturday.” But whether it will make landfall or blow out to sea remains a key question.
It’s the fourth hurricane of the 2023 season. With a wind speed of 75 mph, the storm is now a Category 1 hurricane, and is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane, with winds approaching 150 mph, by the weekend.
Forecasters from the hurricane center were not predicting that winds would reach Category 5 strength, which is 157 mph. However, meteorologists from AccuWeather, for example, said Lee “is forecast to intensify rapidly into a powerful Category 5 hurricane” by the weekend.
Where is Lee now?
As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, Lee was still some 1,100 miles east of the Caribbean islands. It was moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph.
“Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend,” the hurricane center said. A “major” hurricane has winds of at least 111 mph.
Long-range forecasts indicate that Lee will likely curve north before hitting Florida next week. Potential impacts from Lee along the rest of the U.S. East Coast remain uncertain.
Lee expected to become at least a Category 4 hurricane
Lee is expected to undergo rapid intensification as it zooms across the Atlantic, thanks to unusually warm ocean water and a lack of wind shear, both of which act to strengthen storms. Forecasts from the hurricane center now have the storm at 150 mph, a strong Category 4 hurricane, by the weekend.
“Continued steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next few days,” the hurricane center said. “Most of the intensity models are very aggressive, bringing Lee to major hurricane status by the weekend.”
AccuWeather said that the storm’s winds would reach or surpass 157 mph, making it a Category 5 hurricane and the “most intense storm” of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Other private forecasters are also predicting that Lee could reach Category 5 intensity.
Where is Lee headed?
Lee is forecast to move northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean over the next few days and have only minimal impact on the islands of the Caribbean.
Beyond that, all major hurricane models that meteorologists use to forecast storms indicate that Lee will recurve away from Florida. Looking even further ahead, the latest forecasts suggest Lee’s path could vary across a wide swath spanning from the U.S. East Coast northward to eastern Canada, or even skirt away from the coast entirely.
“An eventual landfall in the Canadian Maritime provinces or the U.S. East Coast north of Florida is possible after Lee passes Bermuda, as is a recurvature to the northeast, out to sea,” said meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections.
Whatever happens, most of the beaches along the eastern United States are likely to see stronger surf and dangerous rip currents next week.
Hurricane center’s forecast track for Lee
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Swells could affect the Caribbean
“Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday,” the hurricane center said. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”
How is the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season stacking up?
Lee is the 12th named storm to form this season. It’s the season’s fourth hurricane and third major hurricane.
If Lee becomes a Category 4 hurricane by Saturday, it will be the third Category 4 storm this year, following Franklin and Idalia.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. Even before the season started, forecasters said 2023 was likely to be a busier-than-normal season, but in August they bumped up their predictions, calling for 14-21 named storms.
Spaghetti models for Lee
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network