Economic Research

6 Reasons Why a US Recession Is Likely — and Coming Soon

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6 Reasons Why a US Recession Is Likely — and Coming Soon

When everyone expects a soft landing, brace for impact. That’s the lesson of recent economic history — and it’s an uncomfortable one for the US right now. A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence — not least at the Federal Reserve — that the world’s … Read more

US Recession Indicator Sahm Rule Might Not Hold for 2023

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US Recession Indicator Sahm Rule Might Not Hold for 2023

In 2019, while working as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve, Claudia Sahm published a measure to show when the US has fallen into a recession. What came to be known as the Sahm Rule is elegant in its simplicity and has been praised for its accuracy by the likes of Nobel laureate Paul … Read more