Economists did not believe it was possible, but they’ve been wrong a lot lately, and in their defense it has only ever happened once (or maybe twice) before: We may be witnessing that rare achievement known as a soft landing. The US Federal Reserve’s latest forecast expects the inflation rate to slide back down to … Read more
There’s a lot of optionality left, both in the economy and in the interest rate outlook. The US economy is slowing, but by how much, we still don’t know. That means we have a period of volatility still in front of us for asset markets. Still, the risk-reward for US government bonds and mortgages looks … Read more
WASHINGTON — Surging interest rates are intensifying the challenges for the U.S. economy and threatening to derail the Federal Reserve’s drive to tame inflation without causing a deep recession. Since mid-summer, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a benchmark for many loans, has steadily climbed, causing a spillover rise in other borrowing costs. The … Read more
You wouldn’t know it by the headlines. But the US economy is breaking in plain sight. Only the savings cushion of the richest 20% are keeping it afloat. And if interest rates keep rising nearly every day, even that won’t be enough. The beginning of the quarter has gotten off to a torrid start with … Read more
Hi, I’m Lucy White, a UK economics reporter in London. Here’s today’s Readout. Just a few days ago, markets thought a 15th consecutive hike in UK interest rates was pretty much nailed on. After a surprisingly sanguine inflation print this morning, those forecasts are now all up in the air. Source link