October 6, 2023 at 4:35 PM EDT US President Joe Biden touted powerful new jobs data as evidence that “Bidenomics” has driven America clear of the pandemic while maintaining employment at near record levels. Jobs unexpectedly surged in September—almost double what was expected—yielding yet more evidence of America’s remarkably durable labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased … Read more
When everyone expects a soft landing, brace for impact. That’s the lesson of recent economic history — and it’s an uncomfortable one for the US right now. A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence — not least at the Federal Reserve — that the world’s … Read more
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she’s increasingly confident that the US will be able to contain inflation without major damage to the job market, hailing data showing a steady slowdown in inflation and a fresh influx of job seekers. “I am feeling very good about that prediction,” Yellen said Sunday when asked about her previous … Read more
Cheer Up! Your Pay Is Barely Falling Now Bloomberg Source link
August 13, 2023 at 12:00 AM EDT I am old — I turn 60 next year. So I don’t believe in Santa Claus. I don’t believe in the Tooth Fairy. And I am pretty darned skeptical about Jay Powell’s “soft landing,” too. I’ve seen enough Fed chairs over the years to know that managing monetary … Read more
JPMorgan Scraps Recession Call in Latest Sign of Rising Optimism Bloomberg Source link
This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Today, economy reporter Reade Pickert previews the jobs number coming out tomorrow and its implications. Sign up here and follow us at @bpolitics. Email our editors here. It’s that time again. The monthly jobs report, set for release at 8:30 … Read more
In 2019, while working as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve, Claudia Sahm published a measure to show when the US has fallen into a recession. What came to be known as the Sahm Rule is elegant in its simplicity and has been praised for its accuracy by the likes of Nobel laureate Paul … Read more
All the chatter of late is about the US avoiding a recession altogether. On the surface that seems like a positive outcome. But when you consider the implications of a ‘no landing’ scenario, it becomes less appealing because of the risk that a decent recovery turns into an overheated economy and market. It’s a recipe … Read more
US stocks fell for the second day straight while Treasury yields spiked after surprisingly strong private hiring data. Traders are next to turning to Friday payroll numbers to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next move. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 benchmarks notched losses on Thursday after ADP Research Institute numbers showed US companies added the … Read more